Alignment Healthcare Llc Stock Price Prediction
| ALHC Stock | USD 18.11 0.40 2.16% |
Momentum 71
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.10) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.15) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.0314 | Wall Street Target Price 17.3182 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.08) |
Using Alignment Healthcare hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alignment Healthcare LLC from the perspective of Alignment Healthcare response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Alignment Healthcare using Alignment Healthcare's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Alignment using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Alignment Healthcare's stock price.
Alignment Healthcare Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Alignment Healthcare's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Alignment. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Alignment Healthcare stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 11.9032 | Short Percent 0.0673 | Short Ratio 3.25 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.1 M | 50 Day MA 15.665 |
Alignment Healthcare LLC Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Alignment Healthcare's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Alignment. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alignment can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alignment Healthcare LLC. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Alignment Healthcare's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Alignment Healthcare.
Alignment Healthcare Implied Volatility | 1.69 |
Alignment Healthcare's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alignment Healthcare LLC stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alignment Healthcare's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alignment Healthcare stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alignment Healthcare's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Alignment Healthcare to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Alignment because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Alignment Healthcare after-hype prediction price | USD 18.47 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Alignment contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Alignment Healthcare LLC will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.11% per day over the life of the 2025-05-16 option contract. With Alignment Healthcare trading at USD 18.11, that is roughly USD 0.0191 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Alignment Healthcare's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Alignment Healthcare LLC options at the current volatility level of 1.69%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Alignment |
Alignment Healthcare After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alignment Healthcare at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alignment Healthcare or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alignment Healthcare, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alignment Healthcare Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alignment Healthcare's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alignment Healthcare's historical news coverage. Alignment Healthcare's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.98 and 21.96, respectively. We have considered Alignment Healthcare's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alignment Healthcare is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alignment Healthcare LLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alignment Healthcare Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alignment Healthcare is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alignment Healthcare backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alignment Healthcare, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.76 | 3.50 | 0.33 | 0.30 | 11 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
18.11 | 18.47 | 1.99 |
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Alignment Healthcare Hype Timeline
Alignment Healthcare LLC is presently traded for 18.11. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.33, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.3. Alignment is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 18.47 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 1.99%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.76%. The volatility of related hype on Alignment Healthcare is about 892.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.41. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.7 B. Net Loss for the year was (128.07 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 296.69 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Alignment Healthcare Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Alignment Healthcare Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alignment Healthcare's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alignment Healthcare's future price movements. Getting to know how Alignment Healthcare's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alignment Healthcare may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BHG | Bright Health Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| MOH | Molina Healthcare | (0.09) | 10 per month | 2.81 | 0.16 | 4.82 | (4.32) | 14.91 | |
| CLOV | Clover Health Investments | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.19 | 0.05 | 6.42 | (5.00) | 16.90 | |
| CNC | Centene Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.05 | 0.07 | 3.02 | (3.46) | 11.30 | |
| ELV | Elevance Health | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.50 | 0.20 | 3.05 | (2.61) | 10.70 | |
| HUM | Humana Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.05 | 3.22 | (3.55) | 12.48 | |
| CI | Cigna Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.85 | 0.22 | 2.43 | (2.70) | 10.82 | |
| OSCR | Oscar Health | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 6.25 | (7.26) | 26.99 | |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | 4.57 | 8 per month | 2.09 | 0.12 | 2.47 | (2.85) | 11.09 | |
| CVS | CVS Health Corp | (0.56) | 10 per month | 1.17 | 0.29 | 4.36 | (2.32) | 17.42 |
Alignment Healthcare Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alignment price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alignment using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alignment charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Alignment Healthcare Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Alignment Healthcare stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alignment Healthcare LLC, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alignment Healthcare based on analysis of Alignment Healthcare hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Alignment Healthcare's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Alignment Healthcare's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | |
| Interest Debt Per Share | 1.01 | 1.03 | 0.16 |
| Revenue Per Share | 7.91 | 9.79 | 14.17 |
Story Coverage note for Alignment Healthcare
The number of cover stories for Alignment Healthcare depends on current market conditions and Alignment Healthcare's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alignment Healthcare is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alignment Healthcare's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alignment Healthcare Short Properties
Alignment Healthcare's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alignment Healthcare's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alignment Healthcare LLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alignment Healthcare's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alignment Healthcare's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 190.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 470.6 M |
Complementary Tools for Alignment Stock analysis
When running Alignment Healthcare's price analysis, check to measure Alignment Healthcare's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alignment Healthcare is operating at the current time. Most of Alignment Healthcare's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alignment Healthcare's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alignment Healthcare's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alignment Healthcare to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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