Alkermes Plc Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ALKS Stock | USD 33.61 0.34 1.00% |
Alkermes Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The RSI of Alkermes Plc's stock price is slightly above 64. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Alkermes, making its price go up or down. Momentum 64
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.12) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4246 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.9573 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.9315 | Wall Street Target Price 43.6875 |
Using Alkermes Plc hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alkermes Plc from the perspective of Alkermes Plc response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Alkermes Plc using Alkermes Plc's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Alkermes using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Alkermes Plc's stock price.
Alkermes Plc Short Interest
An investor who is long Alkermes Plc may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Alkermes Plc and may potentially protect profits, hedge Alkermes Plc with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 29.3469 | Short Percent 0.1918 | Short Ratio 13.34 | Shares Short Prior Month 20 M | 50 Day MA 29.4744 |
Alkermes Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alkermes Plc on the next trading day is expected to be 35.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.76.Alkermes Plc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Alkermes Plc's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Alkermes. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alkermes can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alkermes Plc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Alkermes Plc's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Alkermes Plc.
Alkermes Plc Implied Volatility | 0.62 |
Alkermes Plc's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alkermes Plc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alkermes Plc's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alkermes Plc stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alkermes Plc's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alkermes Plc on the next trading day is expected to be 35.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.76. Alkermes Plc after-hype prediction price | USD 33.65 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alkermes Plc to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Alkermes contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Alkermes Plc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0388% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Alkermes Plc trading at USD 33.61, that is roughly USD 0.013 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Alkermes Plc's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Alkermes Plc options at the current volatility level of 0.62%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Alkermes Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Alkermes Plc's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Alkermes Plc's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Alkermes Plc stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Alkermes Plc's open interest, investors have to compare it to Alkermes Plc's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Alkermes Plc is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Alkermes. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Alkermes Plc Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alkermes price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alkermes using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alkermes charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Alkermes Plc's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1991-06-30 | Previous Quarter 521.2 M | Current Value 616.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 144 M |
Alkermes Plc Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alkermes Plc on the next trading day is expected to be 35.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64, mean absolute percentage error of 0.71, and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.76.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alkermes Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alkermes Plc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alkermes Plc Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alkermes Plc | Alkermes Plc Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Alkermes Plc Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alkermes Plc's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alkermes Plc's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 33.55 and 37.98, respectively. We have considered Alkermes Plc's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alkermes Plc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alkermes Plc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7643 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6354 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.021 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 38.7593 |
Predictive Modules for Alkermes Plc
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alkermes Plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alkermes Plc After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alkermes Plc at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alkermes Plc or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alkermes Plc, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alkermes Plc Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alkermes Plc's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alkermes Plc's historical news coverage. Alkermes Plc's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.44 and 35.86, respectively. We have considered Alkermes Plc's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alkermes Plc is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alkermes Plc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alkermes Plc Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alkermes Plc is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alkermes Plc backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alkermes Plc, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 2.21 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
33.61 | 33.65 | 0.12 |
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Alkermes Plc Hype Timeline
Alkermes Plc is presently traded for 33.61. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Alkermes is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 33.65 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.12%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Alkermes Plc is about 6906.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 33.61. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.56 B. Net Income was 367.07 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.31 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alkermes Plc to cross-verify your projections.Alkermes Plc Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alkermes Plc's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alkermes Plc's future price movements. Getting to know how Alkermes Plc's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alkermes Plc may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PTCT | PTC Therapeutics | 0.08 | 10 per month | 2.12 | 0.04 | 3.88 | (3.49) | 13.88 | |
| ACLX | Arcellx | (1.05) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.75 | (4.57) | 22.18 | |
| PTGX | Protagonist Therapeutics | (0.98) | 16 per month | 2.01 | 0.03 | 3.36 | (3.43) | 9.48 | |
| ACAD | ACADIA Pharmaceuticals | (0.36) | 10 per month | 1.36 | 0.16 | 3.35 | (2.44) | 9.79 | |
| TGTX | TG Therapeutics | (0.29) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.96 | (3.85) | 11.58 | |
| ARWR | Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals | (1.26) | 8 per month | 2.89 | 0.18 | 10.85 | (5.77) | 32.02 | |
| PCVX | Vaxcyte | 0.60 | 7 per month | 2.30 | 0.09 | 6.38 | (3.42) | 15.14 | |
| CRSP | Crispr Therapeutics AG | 0.49 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.31 | (5.47) | 13.70 | |
| AKRO | Akero Therapeutics | (0.35) | 36 per month | 0.63 | 0.10 | 3.29 | (2.12) | 16.73 | |
| KYMR | Kymera Therapeutics | 2.80 | 9 per month | 2.85 | 0.05 | 4.40 | (4.46) | 49.42 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alkermes Plc
For every potential investor in Alkermes, whether a beginner or expert, Alkermes Plc's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alkermes Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alkermes. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alkermes Plc's price trends.Alkermes Plc Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alkermes Plc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alkermes Plc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alkermes Plc by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alkermes Plc Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alkermes Plc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alkermes Plc shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alkermes Plc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alkermes Plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alkermes Plc Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alkermes Plc's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alkermes Plc's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alkermes stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.27 | |||
| Variance | 5.13 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.84 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.41 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.84) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alkermes Plc
The number of cover stories for Alkermes Plc depends on current market conditions and Alkermes Plc's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alkermes Plc is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alkermes Plc's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alkermes Plc Short Properties
Alkermes Plc's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alkermes Plc's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alkermes Plc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alkermes Plc's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alkermes Plc's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 169.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 751.7 M |
Additional Tools for Alkermes Stock Analysis
When running Alkermes Plc's price analysis, check to measure Alkermes Plc's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alkermes Plc is operating at the current time. Most of Alkermes Plc's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alkermes Plc's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alkermes Plc's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alkermes Plc to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.