Alta Equipment Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ALTG Stock | USD 6.36 0.12 1.92% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alta Equipment Group on the next trading day is expected to be 6.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.23. Alta Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alta Equipment's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Alta Equipment's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.454 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.15) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.13) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.3767 | Wall Street Target Price 9.95 |
Using Alta Equipment hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alta Equipment Group from the perspective of Alta Equipment response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Alta Equipment using Alta Equipment's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Alta using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Alta Equipment's stock price.
Alta Equipment Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Alta Equipment's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Alta. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Alta Equipment stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 6.1303 | Short Percent 0.0353 | Short Ratio 3.29 | Shares Short Prior Month 1 M | 50 Day MA 5.1298 |
Alta Equipment Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Alta Equipment's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Alta. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alta can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alta Equipment Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Alta Equipment Implied Volatility | 1.01 |
Alta Equipment's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alta Equipment Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alta Equipment's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alta Equipment stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alta Equipment's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alta Equipment Group on the next trading day is expected to be 6.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.23. Alta Equipment after-hype prediction price | USD 6.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alta Equipment to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Alta Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Alta Equipment's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Alta Equipment's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Alta Equipment stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Alta Equipment's open interest, investors have to compare it to Alta Equipment's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Alta Equipment is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Alta. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Alta Equipment Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alta price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alta using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alta charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alta Equipment Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Alta Equipment's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2018-12-31 | Previous Quarter 13.2 M | Current Value 14.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 9.1 M |
Alta Equipment Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alta Equipment Group on the next trading day is expected to be 6.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.23.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alta Equipment's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alta Equipment Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alta Equipment | Alta Equipment Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Alta Equipment Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alta Equipment's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alta Equipment's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.12 and 10.61, respectively. We have considered Alta Equipment's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alta Equipment stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alta Equipment stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.9119 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2825 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0542 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.2334 |
Predictive Modules for Alta Equipment
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alta Equipment Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alta Equipment's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alta Equipment After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alta Equipment at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alta Equipment or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alta Equipment, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alta Equipment Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alta Equipment's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alta Equipment's historical news coverage. Alta Equipment's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.60 and 10.08, respectively. We have considered Alta Equipment's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alta Equipment is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alta Equipment Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alta Equipment Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alta Equipment is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alta Equipment backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alta Equipment, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 3.74 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.36 | 6.34 | 0.31 |
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Alta Equipment Hype Timeline
Alta Equipment Group is presently traded for 6.36. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Alta is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 6.34. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.31%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Alta Equipment is about 3495.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.35. About 27.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 211.67. Alta Equipment Group recorded a loss per share of 2.5. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of May 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alta Equipment to cross-verify your projections.Alta Equipment Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alta Equipment's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alta Equipment's future price movements. Getting to know how Alta Equipment's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alta Equipment may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| POWW | Ammo Inc | 0.02 | 9 per month | 2.89 | 0.04 | 5.59 | (4.71) | 14.96 | |
| NVX | Novonix Ltd ADR | (0.02) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 12.95 | (10.43) | 33.61 | |
| SMHI | SEACOR Marine Holdings | (0.69) | 10 per month | 2.75 | 0.03 | 6.94 | (4.31) | 17.74 | |
| SKYX | SKYX Platforms Corp | 0.09 | 9 per month | 4.02 | 0.20 | 15.33 | (7.17) | 26.24 | |
| FCEL | FuelCell Energy | (0.27) | 11 per month | 5.05 | 0.05 | 12.26 | (8.69) | 35.51 | |
| PAMT | PAMT P | 0.08 | 5 per month | 3.27 | (0.01) | 6.06 | (6.15) | 17.24 | |
| SHMD | SCHMID Group NV | (0.35) | 7 per month | 6.50 | 0.17 | 16.73 | (10.85) | 40.89 | |
| CRGO | Freightos Limited Ordinary | 0.20 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 7.47 | (7.69) | 32.29 | |
| SPCE | Virgin Galactic Holdings | 0.14 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 6.71 | (7.90) | 27.80 | |
| ESOA | Energy Services | (0.27) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.54 | (4.37) | 14.07 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alta Equipment
For every potential investor in Alta, whether a beginner or expert, Alta Equipment's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alta Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alta Equipment's price trends.Alta Equipment Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alta Equipment stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alta Equipment could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alta Equipment by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alta Equipment Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alta Equipment stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alta Equipment shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alta Equipment stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alta Equipment Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alta Equipment Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alta Equipment's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alta Equipment's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alta stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.85 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.7 | |||
| Variance | 13.67 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.71 | |||
| Semi Variance | 12.01 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.12) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alta Equipment
The number of cover stories for Alta Equipment depends on current market conditions and Alta Equipment's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alta Equipment is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alta Equipment's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alta Equipment Short Properties
Alta Equipment's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alta Equipment's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alta Equipment Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alta Equipment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alta Equipment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 33.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alta Equipment to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Is Trading Companies & Distributors space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alta Equipment. If investors know Alta will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alta Equipment listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.454 | Dividend Share 0.114 | Earnings Share (2.50) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
The market value of Alta Equipment Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alta that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alta Equipment's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alta Equipment's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alta Equipment's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alta Equipment's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alta Equipment's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alta Equipment is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alta Equipment's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.