Allurion Technologies Stock Forward View

Key Indicators . Naive Prediction . Stocks . USA . 
Stock . Allurion Technologies
ALUR Stock   0.72  -0.06  -7.05%   
Allurion Technologies's Naive Prediction forecast is generated from the selected price series and evaluated against observed values. Forecast accuracy depends on how stable the recent price trend has been — trending markets suit some models better than others. The forecast is recalculated with each session so it does not rely on stale inputs. A small Bias confirms the model is not systematically over- or under-predicting. The Naive Prediction model projects Allurion Technologies at 1.00 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. All values shown are model-generated projections and should be evaluated alongside other analytical inputs.

Allurion Technologies Cash Forecast

Cash forecasting for Allurion Technologies integrates regression, time-series decomposition, and machine learning techniques. Algorithms process these patterns to generate probability-weighted predictions of Allurion Technologies's future performance. The quality of a cash forecast depends on the accuracy of assumptions about Allurion Technologies' revenue and cost trends. The forecast captures how Allurion Technologies' key financial metrics evolve over time.
 
Cash  
 First Reported
2021-03-31
 Previous Quarter
6.14 million
 Current Value
5.41 million
 Quarterly Volatility
19.17 million
Macro event markers
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for Allurion Technologies is a special case of the moving average where the smoothing period is one. The forecast for Allurion Technologies on a given trading day is simply the observed closing price of the previous period. Because it uses only a single lag, this model is limited to one-period-ahead forecasts.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 13th of May 2026

Over a 90-day horizon, the Naive Prediction model forecasts Allurion Technologies at 1.00 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.17 , and sum of absolute errors of 6.97 .
This indicates limited forecast accuracy — the model does not closely track Allurion Technologies' recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Allurion Technologies  Allurion Technologies Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast range for Allurion Technologies defines statistically derived downside and upside boundaries based on model performance. The current forecast range spans downside near 0.01 and upside near 18.59. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Market Value
0.73
0.01
Downside
1.00
Expected Value
18.59
Upside
Target Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Naive Prediction model's error metrics for Allurion Technologies stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.3198
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1143
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1724
SAESum of the absolute errors6.9726
The naive model produces a tight forecast range but offers no smoothing of noise or trend detection. It serves primarily as a baseline benchmark — if a more complex model cannot outperform the naive forecast, it may indicate that Allurion Technologies price movements are largely random over the selected horizon.

Other Forecasting Options for Allurion Technologies

MACD analysis of Allurion tracks the relationship between two exponential moving averages of Allurion Technologies' price. Many Allurion Technologies' traders use Fibonacci levels to set entry and exit targets based on prior price swings. Average True Range measures the typical daily price swing for Allurion, accounting for gaps. The frequency and magnitude of gaps reveal how much new information is being priced into Allurion outside regular hours.
Naive Prediction
Simple Exponential Smoothing
Double Exponential Smoothing
Triple Exponential Smoothing
Simple Regression
Polynomial Regression
Simple Moving Average
4 Period Moving Average
8 Period Moving Average
20 Period Moving Average

Allurion Technologies Related Equities

The peer firms below within the Consumer Discretionary space frame Allurion Technologies' pricing and running costs in context. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across Allurion Technologies' peer group.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Allurion Technologies Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Allurion Technologies quantify how the stock responds to shifts in volume and sentiment. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in Allurion Technologies. The Market Facilitation Index measures how efficiently price moves relative to volume — rising MFI with rising volume signals strong trend participation. Monitoring these indicators for Allurion Technologies through complete market cycles reveals recurring patterns.
Accumulation Distribution0.17
Daily Balance Of Power-0.42
Rate Of Daily Change0.93
Day Median Price0.72
Day Typical Price0.72
Market Facilitation Index0.13
Price Action Indicator-0.02
Period Momentum Indicator-0.06
Relative Strength Index46.71

Allurion Technologies Risk Indicators

Analyzing Allurion Technologies' risk indicators separates symmetric price swings from asymmetric downside exposure. Understanding and quantifying the risks present in Allurion Technologies helps place recent price behavior in context. These metrics are most informative when compared against similar equities with comparable growth profiles and market capitalization. When semi-deviation is high relative to standard deviation, Allurion Technologies' losses have been disproportionately large compared to gains.
Mean Deviation10.97
Semi Deviation12.66
Standard Deviation17.2
Variance295.96
Downside Variance179.33
Semi Variance160.19
Expected Short fall-14.65
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Allurion Technologies Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Allurion Technologies matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. This is applicable when the question is whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding7.54 million
Cash And Short Term Investments5.41 million

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