Dassault Aviation Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AM Stock | EUR 353.40 3.60 1.03% |
Dassault Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Dassault Aviation stock prices and determine the direction of Dassault Aviation SA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Dassault Aviation's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, The relative strength indicator of Dassault Aviation's share price is at 51. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Dassault Aviation, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.29) | EPS Estimate Current Year 12.8619 | EPS Estimate Next Year 16.6851 | Wall Street Target Price 331.2941 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.125 |
Using Dassault Aviation hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Dassault Aviation SA from the perspective of Dassault Aviation response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dassault Aviation SA on the next trading day is expected to be 353.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 255.00. Dassault Aviation after-hype prediction price | EUR 348.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Dassault |
Dassault Aviation Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Dassault price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dassault using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dassault charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Dassault Aviation Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dassault Aviation SA on the next trading day is expected to be 353.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.25, mean absolute percentage error of 32.88, and the sum of the absolute errors of 255.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dassault Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dassault Aviation's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Dassault Aviation Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Dassault Aviation | Dassault Aviation Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Dassault Aviation Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Dassault Aviation's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dassault Aviation's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 351.61 and 355.19, respectively. We have considered Dassault Aviation's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dassault Aviation stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dassault Aviation stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.7654 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.4967 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.25 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0137 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 255.0 |
Predictive Modules for Dassault Aviation
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dassault Aviation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Dassault Aviation After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Dassault Aviation at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Dassault Aviation or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Dassault Aviation, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Dassault Aviation Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Dassault Aviation's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Dassault Aviation's historical news coverage. Dassault Aviation's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 346.52 and 388.74, respectively. We have considered Dassault Aviation's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Dassault Aviation is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Dassault Aviation is based on 3 months time horizon.
Dassault Aviation Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Dassault Aviation is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Dassault Aviation backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Dassault Aviation, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.48 | 1.79 | 5.09 | 0.09 | 2 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
353.40 | 348.31 | 1.44 |
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Dassault Aviation Hype Timeline
Dassault Aviation is presently traded for 353.40on Euronext Paris of France. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -5.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. Dassault is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 348.31. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 16.89%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -1.44%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.48%. The volatility of related hype on Dassault Aviation is about 946.99%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 353.49. About 77.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Dassault Aviation was presently reported as 79.08. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.57. Dassault Aviation recorded earning per share (EPS) of 10.0. The entity last dividend was issued on the 20th of May 2025. The firm had 10:1 split on the 1st of October 2021. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dassault Aviation to cross-verify your projections.Dassault Aviation Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Dassault Aviation's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Dassault Aviation's future price movements. Getting to know how Dassault Aviation's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Dassault Aviation may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VIE | Veolia Environnement VE | (0.15) | 1 per month | 0.70 | 0.19 | 1.82 | (1.34) | 4.39 | |
| EN | Bouygues SA | (0.87) | 4 per month | 0.59 | 0.20 | 2.42 | (1.53) | 4.78 | |
| FII | Lisi SA | 2.60 | 2 per month | 1.57 | 0.15 | 3.15 | (2.69) | 10.47 | |
| BVI | Bureau Veritas SA | (0.28) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.04 | (2.45) | 5.38 | |
| ALSOG | Sogeclair SA | 0.20 | 1 per month | 0.83 | 0.15 | 2.73 | (1.43) | 8.48 | |
| ALODY | Odyssee Technologies SA | 0.50 | 4 per month | 2.73 | (0.01) | 4.58 | (4.91) | 21.39 | |
| FGR | Eiffage SA | (0.35) | 6 per month | 0.59 | 0.22 | 3.27 | (1.40) | 7.37 | |
| AYV | ALD SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.99 | (0) | 2.61 | (2.33) | 10.94 | |
| LAT | Latcore SA | 0.0002 | 1 per month | 2.57 | 0.09 | 8.11 | (5.41) | 16.94 | |
| ADP | Aeroports de Paris | 0.24 | 10 per month | 2.44 | (0.02) | 2.51 | (3.17) | 16.09 |
Other Forecasting Options for Dassault Aviation
For every potential investor in Dassault, whether a beginner or expert, Dassault Aviation's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dassault Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dassault. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dassault Aviation's price trends.Dassault Aviation Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dassault Aviation stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dassault Aviation could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dassault Aviation by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Dassault Aviation Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dassault Aviation stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dassault Aviation shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dassault Aviation stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Dassault Aviation SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Dassault Aviation Risk Indicators
The analysis of Dassault Aviation's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dassault Aviation's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dassault stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Variance | 3.41 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.47 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.65) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Dassault Aviation
The number of cover stories for Dassault Aviation depends on current market conditions and Dassault Aviation's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Dassault Aviation is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Dassault Aviation's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Dassault Aviation Short Properties
Dassault Aviation's future price predictability will typically decrease when Dassault Aviation's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Dassault Aviation SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Dassault Aviation's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dassault Aviation's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 78.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.5 B |
Other Information on Investing in Dassault Stock
Dassault Aviation financial ratios help investors to determine whether Dassault Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Dassault with respect to the benefits of owning Dassault Aviation security.