American Homes Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AMH Stock | USD 31.99 0.46 1.46% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Homes 4 on the next trading day is expected to be 31.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.26. American Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of American Homes' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of American Homes' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.338 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.215 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.7115 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.8009 | Wall Street Target Price 36.8333 |
Using American Homes hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Homes 4 from the perspective of American Homes response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Homes using American Homes' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Homes' stock price.
American Homes Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in American Homes' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards American. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of American Homes stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 34.3755 | Short Percent 0.0336 | Short Ratio 3.09 | Shares Short Prior Month 8.2 M | 50 Day MA 31.648 |
American Homes 4 Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to American Homes' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Homes 4. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
American Homes Implied Volatility | 0.67 |
American Homes' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Homes 4 stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Homes' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Homes stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Homes' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Homes 4 on the next trading day is expected to be 31.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.26. American Homes after-hype prediction price | USD 32.04 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Homes to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current American contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that American Homes 4 will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0419% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With American Homes trading at USD 31.99, that is roughly USD 0.0134 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating American Homes' daily price movement you should consider acquiring American Homes 4 options at the current volatility level of 0.67%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 American Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast American Homes' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in American Homes' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for American Homes stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current American Homes' open interest, investors have to compare it to American Homes' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of American Homes is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in American. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
American Homes Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American Homes Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the American Homes' financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2012-12-31 | Previous Quarter 323.3 M | Current Value 45.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 137.9 M |
American Homes Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Homes 4 on the next trading day is expected to be 31.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Homes' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Homes Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Homes | American Homes Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
American Homes Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Homes' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Homes' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.15 and 32.92, respectively. We have considered American Homes' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Homes stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Homes stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.6913 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3977 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0127 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.2577 |
Predictive Modules for American Homes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Homes 4. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.American Homes After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Homes at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Homes or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Homes, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Homes Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Homes' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Homes' historical news coverage. American Homes' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 30.66 and 33.42, respectively. We have considered American Homes' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Homes is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Homes 4 is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Homes Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Homes is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Homes backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Homes, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 1.38 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
31.99 | 32.04 | 0.16 |
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American Homes Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January American Homes 4 is traded for 31.99. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. American is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 32.04 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 145.26%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.16%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.05%. The volatility of related hype on American Homes is about 469.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 32.00. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.73 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 468.14 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.03 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Homes to cross-verify your projections.American Homes Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Homes' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Homes' future price movements. Getting to know how American Homes' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Homes may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ELS | Equity Lifestyle Properties | 0.95 | 4 per month | 1.12 | (0.03) | 2.11 | (1.69) | 4.43 | |
| UDR | UDR Inc | 0.72 | 17 per month | 1.18 | 0.01 | 2.07 | (1.54) | 5.11 | |
| LAMR | Lamar Advertising | (0.72) | 11 per month | 0.94 | 0.04 | 2.13 | (1.76) | 7.61 | |
| CPT | Camden Property Trust | 0.32 | 9 per month | 1.34 | 0.01 | 1.81 | (2.31) | 5.59 | |
| REG | Regency Centers | 0.95 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.67 | (1.60) | 3.79 | |
| OHI | Omega Healthcare Investors | (0.15) | 15 per month | 1.11 | 0.05 | 2.13 | (1.70) | 8.67 | |
| MAA | Mid America Apartment Communities | 0.72 | 10 per month | 1.09 | (0.02) | 2.05 | (1.91) | 5.24 | |
| HST | Host Hotels Resorts | 0.43 | 9 per month | 1.17 | 0.09 | 2.65 | (2.03) | 9.68 | |
| AGNC | AGNC Investment Corp | (0.13) | 11 per month | 0.49 | 0.23 | 1.96 | (1.22) | 4.40 | |
| GLPI | Gaming Leisure Properties | (0.15) | 22 per month | 1.07 | (0.02) | 2.80 | (2.06) | 7.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Homes
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Homes' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Homes' price trends.American Homes Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Homes stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Homes could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Homes by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Homes Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Homes stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Homes shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Homes stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Homes 4 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 46896.95 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.8519 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 31.79 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 31.86 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.43 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.46 |
American Homes Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Homes' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Homes' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Variance | 1.78 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Homes
The number of cover stories for American Homes depends on current market conditions and American Homes' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Homes is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Homes' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American Homes Short Properties
American Homes' future price predictability will typically decrease when American Homes' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Homes 4 often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Homes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Homes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 368 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 199.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Homes to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Single-Family Residential REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Homes. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Homes listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.338 | Dividend Share 1.16 | Earnings Share 1.18 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.075 |
The market value of American Homes 4 is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Homes' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Homes' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Homes' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Homes' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Homes' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Homes is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Homes' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.