Ampio Pharm Pink Sheet Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| AMPE Stock | USD 0.01 0.25 96.15% |
Ampio Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ampio Pharm stock prices and determine the direction of Ampio Pharm's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Ampio Pharm's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Ampio Pharm's share price is approaching 45. This suggests that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ampio Pharm, making its price go up or down. Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Ampio Pharm hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ampio Pharm from the perspective of Ampio Pharm response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ampio Pharm on the next trading day is expected to be 0.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.53. Ampio Pharm after-hype prediction price | USD 0.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Ampio |
Ampio Pharm Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ampio price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ampio using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ampio charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ampio Pharm Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ampio Pharm on the next trading day is expected to be 0.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ampio Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ampio Pharm's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ampio Pharm Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ampio Pharm | Ampio Pharm Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ampio Pharm pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ampio Pharm pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0135 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0421 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 6.5082 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.527 |
Predictive Modules for Ampio Pharm
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ampio Pharm. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ampio Pharm After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ampio Pharm at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ampio Pharm or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Ampio Pharm, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ampio Pharm Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ampio Pharm's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ampio Pharm's historical news coverage. Ampio Pharm's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 50.51, respectively. We have considered Ampio Pharm's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ampio Pharm is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ampio Pharm is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ampio Pharm Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ampio Pharm is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ampio Pharm backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ampio Pharm, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
106.05 | 322.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
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Ampio Pharm Hype Timeline
Ampio Pharm is presently traded for 0.01. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Ampio is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 106.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ampio Pharm is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.01. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.21. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ampio Pharm recorded a loss per share of 10.66. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:20 split on the 12th of September 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.Ampio Pharm Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ampio Pharm's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ampio Pharm's future price movements. Getting to know how Ampio Pharm's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ampio Pharm may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BTTX | Better Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| CALA | Calithera Biosciences | 0.00 | 0 per month | 20.36 | 0.18 | 100.00 | (50.00) | 480.00 | |
| ONPH | Oncology Pharma | 0.00 | 0 per month | 18.83 | 0.17 | 150.00 | (40.00) | 1,990 | |
| IVBT | Innovation1 Biotech | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| PANC | Panacos Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TNGNQ | Tengion | 0.00 | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| STAB | Statera Biopharma | 0.00 | 0 per month | 22.55 | 0.20 | 100.00 | (66.67) | 275.00 | |
| BXRXQ | Baudax Bio | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ARNI | Arno Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100.00 | |
| KLDO | Kaleido Biosciences | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4,998 |
Ampio Pharm Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ampio Pharm pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ampio Pharm could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ampio Pharm by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ampio Pharm Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ampio Pharm pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ampio Pharm shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ampio Pharm pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Ampio Pharm entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.0385 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.01 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.01 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.12) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.25) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 45.56 |
Ampio Pharm Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ampio Pharm's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ampio Pharm's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ampio pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 993.89 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 51.23 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1698.79 | |||
| Variance | 2885897.71 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6811.56 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2624.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2,130) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ampio Pharm
The number of cover stories for Ampio Pharm depends on current market conditions and Ampio Pharm's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ampio Pharm is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ampio Pharm's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ampio Pharm Short Properties
Ampio Pharm's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ampio Pharm's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ampio Pharm often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ampio Pharm's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ampio Pharm's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 810.1 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.1 M |
Other Information on Investing in Ampio Pink Sheet
Ampio Pharm financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ampio Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ampio with respect to the benefits of owning Ampio Pharm security.