Alpha Metallurgical Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AMR Stock | USD 231.15 3.85 1.64% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alpha Metallurgical Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 240.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 393.32. Alpha Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Alpha Metallurgical's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Alpha Metallurgical's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Alpha Metallurgical fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of Alpha Metallurgical's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.96) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.27) | EPS Estimate Current Year (3.31) | EPS Estimate Next Year 21.37 | Wall Street Target Price 204.5 |
Using Alpha Metallurgical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alpha Metallurgical Resources from the perspective of Alpha Metallurgical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Alpha Metallurgical using Alpha Metallurgical's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Alpha using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Alpha Metallurgical's stock price.
Alpha Metallurgical Short Interest
An investor who is long Alpha Metallurgical may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Alpha Metallurgical and may potentially protect profits, hedge Alpha Metallurgical with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 149.0908 | Short Percent 0.1754 | Short Ratio 5.94 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.4 M | 50 Day MA 192.2326 |
Alpha Metallurgical Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Alpha Metallurgical's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Alpha. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alpha can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alpha Metallurgical Resources. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Alpha Metallurgical Implied Volatility | 0.65 |
Alpha Metallurgical's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alpha Metallurgical Resources stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alpha Metallurgical's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alpha Metallurgical stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alpha Metallurgical's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alpha Metallurgical Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 240.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 393.32. Alpha Metallurgical after-hype prediction price | USD 238.29 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alpha Metallurgical to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Alpha contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Alpha Metallurgical Resources will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0406% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Alpha Metallurgical trading at USD 231.15, that is roughly USD 0.0939 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Alpha Metallurgical's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Alpha Metallurgical Resources options at the current volatility level of 0.65%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Alpha Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Alpha Metallurgical's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Alpha Metallurgical's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Alpha Metallurgical stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Alpha Metallurgical's open interest, investors have to compare it to Alpha Metallurgical's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Alpha Metallurgical is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Alpha. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Alpha Metallurgical Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alpha price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alpha using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alpha charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alpha Metallurgical Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Alpha Metallurgical's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2016-09-30 | Previous Quarter 449 M | Current Value 408.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 118.9 M |
Alpha Metallurgical Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alpha Metallurgical Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 240.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.45, mean absolute percentage error of 64.93, and the sum of the absolute errors of 393.32.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alpha Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alpha Metallurgical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alpha Metallurgical Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alpha Metallurgical | Alpha Metallurgical Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Alpha Metallurgical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alpha Metallurgical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alpha Metallurgical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 237.22 and 243.90, respectively. We have considered Alpha Metallurgical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alpha Metallurgical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alpha Metallurgical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.2837 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.4478 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0332 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 393.3178 |
Predictive Modules for Alpha Metallurgical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alpha Metallurgical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alpha Metallurgical After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alpha Metallurgical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alpha Metallurgical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alpha Metallurgical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alpha Metallurgical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alpha Metallurgical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alpha Metallurgical's historical news coverage. Alpha Metallurgical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 234.93 and 241.65, respectively. We have considered Alpha Metallurgical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alpha Metallurgical is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alpha Metallurgical is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alpha Metallurgical Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alpha Metallurgical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alpha Metallurgical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alpha Metallurgical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.61 | 3.34 | 3.09 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
231.15 | 238.29 | 1.40 |
|
Alpha Metallurgical Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Alpha Metallurgical is traded for 231.15. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 3.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Alpha is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 238.29 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 66.01%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 1.4%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.61%. The volatility of related hype on Alpha Metallurgical is about 17578.95%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 231.14. The company reported the last year's revenue of 2.96 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 187.58 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 239.43 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alpha Metallurgical to cross-verify your projections.Alpha Metallurgical Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alpha Metallurgical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alpha Metallurgical's future price movements. Getting to know how Alpha Metallurgical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alpha Metallurgical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CRGY | Crescent Energy Co | (0.03) | 10 per month | 2.99 | 0.01 | 5.24 | (5.18) | 15.66 | |
| HP | Helmerich and Payne | (0.02) | 8 per month | 1.83 | 0.20 | 4.39 | (4.04) | 14.89 | |
| METC | Ramaco Resources | 0.55 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 8.19 | (9.90) | 21.06 | |
| INSW | International Seaways | (0.84) | 7 per month | 1.43 | 0.12 | 3.52 | (2.42) | 12.86 | |
| NOG | Northern Oil Gas | 0.67 | 9 per month | 2.35 | 0.04 | 5.26 | (3.89) | 10.76 | |
| PTEN | Patterson UTI Energy | 0.01 | 8 per month | 2.44 | 0.14 | 5.89 | (4.64) | 17.67 | |
| DK | Delek Energy | 1.23 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.60 | (3.81) | 12.71 | |
| SEDG | SolarEdge Technologies | (0.09) | 9 per month | 4.48 | (0) | 8.69 | (7.58) | 43.24 | |
| OII | Oceaneering International | (0.65) | 9 per month | 1.89 | 0.10 | 5.21 | (3.35) | 12.51 | |
| LBRT | Liberty Oilfield Services | (1.02) | 10 per month | 3.08 | 0.15 | 5.41 | (6.06) | 18.46 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alpha Metallurgical
For every potential investor in Alpha, whether a beginner or expert, Alpha Metallurgical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alpha Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alpha. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alpha Metallurgical's price trends.Alpha Metallurgical Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alpha Metallurgical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alpha Metallurgical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alpha Metallurgical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alpha Metallurgical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alpha Metallurgical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alpha Metallurgical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alpha Metallurgical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alpha Metallurgical Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.004 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (4.14) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 230.69 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 230.84 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.93 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.46) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (3.85) |
Alpha Metallurgical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alpha Metallurgical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alpha Metallurgical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alpha stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.63 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.34 | |||
| Variance | 11.18 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.8 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.09 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.88) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alpha Metallurgical
The number of cover stories for Alpha Metallurgical depends on current market conditions and Alpha Metallurgical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alpha Metallurgical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alpha Metallurgical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Alpha Metallurgical Short Properties
Alpha Metallurgical's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alpha Metallurgical's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alpha Metallurgical Resources often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alpha Metallurgical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alpha Metallurgical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 481.6 M |
Additional Tools for Alpha Stock Analysis
When running Alpha Metallurgical's price analysis, check to measure Alpha Metallurgical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alpha Metallurgical is operating at the current time. Most of Alpha Metallurgical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alpha Metallurgical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alpha Metallurgical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alpha Metallurgical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.