American Shared Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AMS Stock | USD 2.10 0.02 0.96% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Shared Hospital on the next trading day is expected to be 2.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.88. American Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of American Shared's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.38) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.02 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.12) | Wall Street Target Price 4.5 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.025 |
Using American Shared hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Shared Hospital from the perspective of American Shared response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
American Shared Hospital Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to American Shared's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Shared Hospital. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Shared Hospital on the next trading day is expected to be 2.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.88.
American Shared after-hype prediction price | USD 2.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Shared to cross-verify your projections. American Shared Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the American Shared's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 11.1 M | Current Value 5.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 5.2 M |
American Shared Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Shared Hospital on the next trading day is expected to be 2.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Shared's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Shared Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Shared | American Shared Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
American Shared Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Shared's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Shared's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 4.09, respectively. We have considered American Shared's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Shared stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Shared stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.6452 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0308 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0144 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.8785 |
Predictive Modules for American Shared
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Shared Hospital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.American Shared After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Shared at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Shared or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Shared, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Shared Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Shared's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Shared's historical news coverage. American Shared's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.06 and 4.14, respectively. We have considered American Shared's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Shared is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Shared Hospital is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Shared Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Shared is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Shared backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Shared, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 2.04 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.10 | 2.10 | 0.00 |
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American Shared Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January American Shared Hospital is traded for 2.10. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.02. American is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on American Shared is about 718.31%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.12. About 45.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.56. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. American Shared Hospital recorded a loss per share of 0.35. The entity last dividend was issued on the 28th of June 2007. The firm had 1:5 split on the January 27, 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Shared to cross-verify your projections.American Shared Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Shared's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Shared's future price movements. Getting to know how American Shared's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Shared may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BNR | Burning Rock Biotech | 1.39 | 9 per month | 6.17 | 0.25 | 18.91 | (10.41) | 50.29 | |
| PMN | ProMIS Neurosciences | 0.49 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 7.41 | (7.69) | 38.10 | |
| AEMD | Aethlon Medical | (0.99) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 10.51 | (10.29) | 38.52 | |
| MPLT | MapLight Therapeutics Common | 0.34 | 4 per month | 4.28 | 0.02 | 8.62 | (7.89) | 39.27 | |
| NVNO | enVVeno Medical Corp | 0.17 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 8.13 | (9.84) | 41.30 | |
| EKSO | Ekso Bionics Holdings | 1.83 | 12 per month | 5.44 | 0.10 | 9.22 | (7.92) | 112.11 | |
| CODX | Co Diagnostics | (0.10) | 7 per month | 14.04 | 0.04 | 13.38 | (20.90) | 319.85 | |
| ERNA | Eterna Therapeutics | (0.06) | 6 per month | 4.72 | 0 | 12.10 | (7.41) | 51.97 | |
| ALUR | Allurion Technologies | 0.17 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 16.54 | (10.32) | 40.95 | |
| PRPH | ProPhase Labs | (0.40) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.56) | 7.97 | (20.55) | 44.34 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Shared
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Shared's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Shared's price trends.American Shared Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Shared stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Shared could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Shared by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Shared Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Shared stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Shared shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Shared stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Shared Hospital entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
American Shared Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Shared's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Shared's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.08 | |||
| Variance | 4.34 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Shared
The number of cover stories for American Shared depends on current market conditions and American Shared's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Shared is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Shared's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American Shared Short Properties
American Shared's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Shared's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Shared Hospital often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Shared's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Shared's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11 M |
Additional Tools for American Stock Analysis
When running American Shared's price analysis, check to measure American Shared's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Shared is operating at the current time. Most of American Shared's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Shared's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Shared's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Shared to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.