ANI Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ANIP Stock | USD 82.99 2.40 2.81% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ANI Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 87.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 108.90. ANI Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of ANI Pharmaceuticals' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using ANI Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ANI Pharmaceuticals from the perspective of ANI Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ANI Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 87.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 108.90. ANI Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price | USD 82.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ANI Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. ANI Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ANI price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ANI using various technical indicators. When you analyze ANI charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
ANI Pharmaceuticals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ANI Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 87.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.79, mean absolute percentage error of 4.52, and the sum of the absolute errors of 108.90.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ANI Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ANI Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ANI Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
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ANI Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ANI Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ANI Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 85.58 and 89.97, respectively. We have considered ANI Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ANI Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ANI Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.6196 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.7853 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0214 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 108.9021 |
Predictive Modules for ANI Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ANI Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ANI Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ANI Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ANI Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ANI Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ANI Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ANI Pharmaceuticals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ANI Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. ANI Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 80.78 and 85.20, respectively. We have considered ANI Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ANI Pharmaceuticals is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ANI Pharmaceuticals is based on 3 months time horizon.
ANI Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ANI Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ANI Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ANI Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 2.20 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 4 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
82.99 | 82.99 | 0.00 |
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ANI Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline
ANI Pharmaceuticals is presently traded for 82.99. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. ANI is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.16%. %. The volatility of related hype on ANI Pharmaceuticals is about 4230.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 83.00. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of ANI Pharmaceuticals was presently reported as 24.19. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.06. ANI Pharmaceuticals had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:6 split on the 18th of July 2013. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ANI Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.ANI Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ANI Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ANI Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how ANI Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ANI Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HROW | Harrow Health | 0.35 | 24 per month | 3.06 | 0.02 | 7.65 | (4.79) | 21.82 | |
| CASBF | CanSino Biologics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 0.00 | (3.60) | 18.06 | |
| BGM | Qilian International Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.38) | 4.59 | (6.55) | 18.41 | |
| TLRY | Tilray Inc | 0.17 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.64 | (8.43) | 54.17 | |
| DMPHF | Dermapharm Holding SE | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| HTSUF | Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.23 | 17.37 | (10.40) | 2.63 | |
| GTBIF | Green Thumb Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.26 | 0.02 | 11.32 | (7.48) | 67.92 | |
| TSMRF | Tsumura Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TCNNF | Trulieve Cannabis Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.03 | 0.06 | 13.73 | (10.61) | 89.76 | |
| ARSUF | Fagron NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14.09 |
Other Forecasting Options for ANI Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in ANI, whether a beginner or expert, ANI Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ANI Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ANI. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ANI Pharmaceuticals' price trends.ANI Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ANI Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ANI Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ANI Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ANI Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ANI Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ANI Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ANI Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ANI Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ANI Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of ANI Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ANI Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ani stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.21 | |||
| Variance | 4.91 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ANI Pharmaceuticals
The number of cover stories for ANI Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and ANI Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ANI Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ANI Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ANI Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
ANI Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when ANI Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ANI Pharmaceuticals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ANI Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ANI Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 151.2 M |
Additional Tools for ANI Stock Analysis
When running ANI Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure ANI Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ANI Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of ANI Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ANI Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ANI Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ANI Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.