Sphere 3D Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ANY Stock  USD 0.28  0.01  3.70%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sphere 3D Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.37. Sphere Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength indicator of Sphere 3D's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Sphere 3D's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Sphere 3D Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Sphere 3D's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.40)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.11)
EPS Estimate Current Year
(0.49)
EPS Estimate Next Year
(0.32)
Wall Street Target Price
3
Using Sphere 3D hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sphere 3D Corp from the perspective of Sphere 3D response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Sphere 3D using Sphere 3D's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Sphere using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Sphere 3D's stock price.

Sphere 3D Implied Volatility

    
  3.22  
Sphere 3D's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Sphere 3D Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Sphere 3D's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Sphere 3D stock will not fluctuate a lot when Sphere 3D's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sphere 3D Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.37.

Sphere 3D after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 0.28  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sphere 3D to cross-verify your projections.

Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Sphere Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Sphere 3D's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Sphere 3D's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Sphere 3D stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Sphere 3D's open interest, investors have to compare it to Sphere 3D's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Sphere 3D is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Sphere. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Sphere 3D Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Sphere price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sphere using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sphere charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Sphere 3D's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2009-09-30
Previous Quarter
4.7 M
Current Value
5.3 M
Quarterly Volatility
14.3 M
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Sphere 3D is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Sphere 3D Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Sphere 3D Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sphere 3D Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0007, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.37.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sphere Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sphere 3D's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Sphere 3D Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Sphere 3DSphere 3D Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Sphere 3D Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Sphere 3D's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sphere 3D's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 5.10, respectively. We have considered Sphere 3D's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.28
0.27
Expected Value
5.10
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sphere 3D stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sphere 3D stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.9015
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0224
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0504
SAESum of the absolute errors1.3653
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Sphere 3D Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Sphere 3D. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Sphere 3D

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sphere 3D Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.010.285.15
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.010.275.14
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
2.733.003.33
Details

Sphere 3D After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Sphere 3D at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sphere 3D or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sphere 3D, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Sphere 3D Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Sphere 3D's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sphere 3D's historical news coverage. Sphere 3D's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.01 and 5.15, respectively. We have considered Sphere 3D's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
0.28
0.28
After-hype Price
5.15
Upside
Sphere 3D is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sphere 3D Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Sphere 3D Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sphere 3D is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sphere 3D backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sphere 3D, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  1.50 
4.83
  0.01 
  0.19 
6 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
0.28
0.28
0.00 
48,300  
Notes

Sphere 3D Hype Timeline

On the 25th of January Sphere 3D Corp is traded for 0.28. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.19. Sphere is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -1.5%. %. The volatility of related hype on Sphere 3D is about 3833.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.09. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.32. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Sphere 3D Corp recorded a loss per share of 0.77. The entity last dividend was issued on the 6th of November 2018. The firm had 1:7 split on the 29th of June 2023. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 6 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sphere 3D to cross-verify your projections.

Sphere 3D Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Sphere 3D's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sphere 3D's future price movements. Getting to know how Sphere 3D's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sphere 3D may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MTCMMTEC Inc(0.27)7 per month 7.20  0.11  12.55 (10.88) 650.28 
NTCLNETCLASS TECHNOLOGY INC 0.05 10 per month 0.00 (0.07) 12.50 (16.36) 71.43 
CSAICloudastructure Class A 0.02 9 per month 0.00 (0.1) 13.58 (12.42) 44.86 
NXPLNextplat Corp 0.00 8 per month 4.83 (0) 8.33 (8.16) 28.43 
SAGTSAGTEC GLOBAL LIMITED 0.02 2 per month 3.98  0.01  8.70 (7.50) 29.68 
NVNINvni Group Limited 0.03 10 per month 0.00 (0.09) 6.73 (8.44) 29.43 
CXAICXApp Inc 0.02 2 per month 0.00 (0.23) 8.11 (10.87) 36.84 
CREXCreative Realities(1.00)2 per month 2.78  0.08  9.89 (5.28) 26.54 
MNDOMIND CTI 0.07 7 per month 1.37  0.08  5.77 (2.83) 14.13 
RMSGReal Messenger(0.20)7 per month 0.00 (0.13) 10.13 (11.40) 35.33 

Other Forecasting Options for Sphere 3D

For every potential investor in Sphere, whether a beginner or expert, Sphere 3D's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sphere Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sphere. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sphere 3D's price trends.

Sphere 3D Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sphere 3D stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sphere 3D could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sphere 3D by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Sphere 3D Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sphere 3D stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sphere 3D shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sphere 3D stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sphere 3D Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Sphere 3D Risk Indicators

The analysis of Sphere 3D's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sphere 3D's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sphere stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Sphere 3D

The number of cover stories for Sphere 3D depends on current market conditions and Sphere 3D's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sphere 3D is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sphere 3D's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Sphere 3D Short Properties

Sphere 3D's future price predictability will typically decrease when Sphere 3D's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sphere 3D Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sphere 3D's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sphere 3D's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding19.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments13 M

Additional Tools for Sphere Stock Analysis

When running Sphere 3D's price analysis, check to measure Sphere 3D's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sphere 3D is operating at the current time. Most of Sphere 3D's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sphere 3D's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sphere 3D's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sphere 3D to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.