Appian Corp Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| APPN Stock | USD 24.89 1.18 4.53% |
Appian Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength indicator of Appian Corp's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Appian Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Appian Corp from the perspective of Appian Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Appian Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 25.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.16. Appian Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 25.72 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Appian Corp to cross-verify your projections. Appian Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Appian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Appian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Appian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Appian Corp Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Appian Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 25.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.09, mean absolute percentage error of 1.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Appian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Appian Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Appian Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Appian Corp | Appian Corp Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Appian Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Appian Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Appian Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.61 and 28.35, respectively. We have considered Appian Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Appian Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Appian Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.9982 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.4158 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0875 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0305 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 64.16 |
Predictive Modules for Appian Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Appian Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Appian Corp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Appian Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Appian Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Appian Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Appian Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Appian Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Appian Corp's historical news coverage. Appian Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.87 and 28.57, respectively. We have considered Appian Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Appian Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Appian Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Appian Corp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Appian Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Appian Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Appian Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.75 | 2.87 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
24.89 | 25.72 | 0.23 |
|
Appian Corp Hype Timeline
Appian Corp is presently traded for 24.89. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.05. Appian is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 25.72 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.23%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.75%. The volatility of related hype on Appian Corp is about 4629.03%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.84. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 617.02 M. Net Loss for the year was (92.26 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 526.94 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Appian Corp to cross-verify your projections.Appian Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Appian Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Appian Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Appian Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Appian Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EVCM | EverCommerce | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.25 | 0.06 | 4.96 | (5.45) | 20.26 | |
| CSGS | CSG Systems International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.20 | (0.01) | 0.52 | (0.59) | 3.08 | |
| TDC | Teradata Corp | (0.61) | 8 per month | 2.03 | 0.09 | 4.26 | (3.67) | 39.70 | |
| PAYO | Payoneer Global | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.71 | 0.06 | 3.70 | (3.13) | 13.13 | |
| MQ | Marqeta | (0.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.24 | (3.36) | 14.05 | |
| NP | Neptune Insurance Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 5.18 | (4.70) | 16.93 | |
| DBD | Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.05 | 0.05 | 2.67 | (2.98) | 8.61 | |
| PGY | Pagaya Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 6.60 | (6.77) | 22.52 | |
| NTCT | NetScout Systems | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.50 | (3.31) | 6.21 | |
| ODD | ODDITY Tech Ltd | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 4.24 | (4.73) | 18.82 |
Other Forecasting Options for Appian Corp
For every potential investor in Appian, whether a beginner or expert, Appian Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Appian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Appian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Appian Corp's price trends.Appian Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Appian Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Appian Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Appian Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Appian Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Appian Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Appian Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Appian Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Appian Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 44751.24 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.08) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 25.42 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 25.25 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.12) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.18) |
Appian Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Appian Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Appian Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting appian stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.87 | |||
| Variance | 8.25 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Appian Corp
The number of cover stories for Appian Corp depends on current market conditions and Appian Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Appian Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Appian Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Appian Corp Short Properties
Appian Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Appian Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Appian Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Appian Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Appian Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 73 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 159.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Appian Corp to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Appian Stock, please use our How to Invest in Appian Corp guide.You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Will Systems Software sector continue expanding? Could Appian diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Appian Corp. If investors know Appian will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Appian Corp data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
The market value of Appian Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Appian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Appian Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Appian Corp's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Appian Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Appian Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Appian Corp's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Appian Corp represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Appian Corp's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.