Arcturus Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ARCT Stock | USD 7.53 0.06 0.79% |
Arcturus Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the RSI of Arcturus Therapeutics' share price is approaching 49. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Arcturus Therapeutics, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.97) | EPS Estimate Current Year (2.12) | EPS Estimate Next Year (2.66) | Wall Street Target Price 33.5556 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.80) |
Using Arcturus Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings from the perspective of Arcturus Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Arcturus Therapeutics using Arcturus Therapeutics' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Arcturus using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Arcturus Therapeutics' stock price.
Arcturus Therapeutics Short Interest
An investor who is long Arcturus Therapeutics may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Arcturus Therapeutics and may potentially protect profits, hedge Arcturus Therapeutics with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 12.5598 | Short Percent 0.3803 | Short Ratio 10.11 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.7 M | 50 Day MA 6.9118 |
Arcturus Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 8.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.94.Arcturus Therapeutics Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Arcturus Therapeutics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Arcturus. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Arcturus can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Arcturus Therapeutics' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Arcturus Therapeutics.
Arcturus Therapeutics Implied Volatility | 1.19 |
Arcturus Therapeutics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Arcturus Therapeutics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Arcturus Therapeutics stock will not fluctuate a lot when Arcturus Therapeutics' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 8.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.94. Arcturus Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 7.56 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arcturus Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Arcturus contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0744% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Arcturus Therapeutics trading at USD 7.53, that is roughly USD 0.0056 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Arcturus Therapeutics' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings options at the current volatility level of 1.19%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Arcturus Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Arcturus Therapeutics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Arcturus Therapeutics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Arcturus Therapeutics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Arcturus Therapeutics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Arcturus Therapeutics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Arcturus Therapeutics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Arcturus. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Arcturus Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Arcturus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arcturus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arcturus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Arcturus Therapeutics' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2012-12-31 | Previous Quarter 196.5 M | Current Value 180.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 157.2 M |
Arcturus Therapeutics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 8.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.94.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arcturus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arcturus Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Arcturus Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Arcturus Therapeutics | Arcturus Therapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Arcturus Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Arcturus Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arcturus Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.04 and 12.09, respectively. We have considered Arcturus Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arcturus Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arcturus Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.6763 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3925 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0552 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.9443 |
Predictive Modules for Arcturus Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arcturus Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arcturus Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Arcturus Therapeutics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Arcturus Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arcturus Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arcturus Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Arcturus Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Arcturus Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arcturus Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Arcturus Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.54 and 11.58, respectively. We have considered Arcturus Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Arcturus Therapeutics is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arcturus Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Arcturus Therapeutics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Arcturus Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arcturus Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arcturus Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 4.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
7.53 | 7.56 | 0.40 |
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Arcturus Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Arcturus Therapeutics is presently traded for 7.53. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Arcturus is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 7.56 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.4%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.36%. The volatility of related hype on Arcturus Therapeutics is about 18272.73%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.54. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 138.39 M. Net Loss for the year was (80.94 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (94.39 M). Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arcturus Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.Arcturus Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Arcturus Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arcturus Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Arcturus Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arcturus Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SGMT | Sagimet Biosciences Series | (0.78) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.08 | (7.51) | 36.94 | |
| HUMA | Humacyte | (0.07) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 8.16 | (8.13) | 19.22 | |
| VYGR | Voyager Therapeutics | (0.17) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.58 | (5.23) | 19.71 | |
| TRDA | Entrada Therapeutics | 0.32 | 5 per month | 2.07 | 0.25 | 6.98 | (4.00) | 15.00 | |
| VNDA | Vanda Pharmaceuticals | (0.48) | 11 per month | 4.85 | 0.12 | 11.39 | (6.34) | 39.51 | |
| ACHV | Achieve Life Sciences | (0.18) | 9 per month | 3.42 | 0.04 | 5.86 | (5.83) | 21.45 | |
| FHTX | Foghorn Therapeutics | 0.11 | 9 per month | 4.29 | 0.11 | 9.16 | (5.56) | 31.12 | |
| IMRX | Immuneering Corp | 1.51 | 11 per month | 8.71 | 0.02 | 8.12 | (7.44) | 67.18 | |
| ZURA | Zura Bio Limited | (0.07) | 6 per month | 4.04 | 0.18 | 9.82 | (6.25) | 28.57 | |
| AVIR | Atea Pharmaceuticals | 0.03 | 6 per month | 2.89 | 0.11 | 4.64 | (3.27) | 16.12 |
Other Forecasting Options for Arcturus Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Arcturus, whether a beginner or expert, Arcturus Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arcturus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arcturus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arcturus Therapeutics' price trends.Arcturus Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arcturus Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arcturus Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arcturus Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arcturus Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arcturus Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arcturus Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arcturus Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Arcturus Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arcturus Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arcturus Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arcturus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.45 | |||
| Variance | 55.54 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Arcturus Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Arcturus Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Arcturus Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arcturus Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arcturus Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Arcturus Therapeutics Short Properties
Arcturus Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Arcturus Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Arcturus Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arcturus Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 27 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 237 M |
Additional Tools for Arcturus Stock Analysis
When running Arcturus Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Arcturus Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arcturus Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Arcturus Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arcturus Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arcturus Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arcturus Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.