Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Stock Price Prediction
| ARCT Stock | USD 16.91 0.16 0.94% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
53
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.27) | EPS Estimate Current Year (2.29) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.58) | Wall Street Target Price 79.4678 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (1.22) |
Using Arcturus Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings from the perspective of Arcturus Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Arcturus Therapeutics to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Arcturus because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Arcturus Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 16.68 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Arcturus |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arcturus Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Arcturus Therapeutics After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Arcturus Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arcturus Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arcturus Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Arcturus Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Arcturus Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arcturus Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Arcturus Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.58 and 20.78, respectively. We have considered Arcturus Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Arcturus Therapeutics is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arcturus Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Arcturus Therapeutics Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Arcturus Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arcturus Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arcturus Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 4.10 | 0.23 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
16.91 | 16.68 | 1.36 |
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Arcturus Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Arcturus Therapeutics is presently traded for 16.91. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.23, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Arcturus is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 16.68. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.36%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.28%. The volatility of related hype on Arcturus Therapeutics is about 10250.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.90. About 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.75. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Arcturus Therapeutics has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 119.5. The entity recorded a loss per share of 2.33. The firm last dividend was issued on the 16th of November 2017. Arcturus Therapeutics had 1:7 split on the 16th of November 2017. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Arcturus Therapeutics Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Arcturus Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Arcturus Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arcturus Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Arcturus Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arcturus Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ELYM | Eliem Therapeutics | 0.25 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 6.21 | (9.35) | 34.87 | |
| HCWB | HCW Biologics | 0.01 | 5 per month | 7.39 | 0.1 | 22.00 | (13.64) | 352.85 | |
| SCPH | Scpharmaceuticals | (0.30) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 4.30 | (7.09) | 20.70 | |
| MIST | Milestone Pharmaceuticals | (0.01) | 6 per month | 1.60 | 0.1 | 7.19 | (2.11) | 18.66 | |
| MCRB | Seres Therapeutics | (0.06) | 9 per month | 5.68 | (0.02) | 10.00 | (9.78) | 28.84 | |
| LUMO | Lumos Pharma | (0.13) | 6 per month | 2.60 | 0.11 | 6.35 | (5.19) | 26.13 |
Arcturus Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Arcturus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arcturus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arcturus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About Arcturus Therapeutics Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Arcturus Therapeutics stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Arcturus Therapeutics based on analysis of Arcturus Therapeutics hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Arcturus Therapeutics's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Arcturus Therapeutics's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Graham Number | 39.16 | 9.02 | 16.21 | 15.4 | Receivables Turnover | 3.67 | 74.44 | 4.92 | 4.67 |
Story Coverage note for Arcturus Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Arcturus Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Arcturus Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arcturus Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arcturus Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Arcturus Therapeutics Short Properties
Arcturus Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Arcturus Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Arcturus Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arcturus Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 26.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 292 M |
Additional Tools for Arcturus Stock Analysis
When running Arcturus Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Arcturus Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arcturus Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Arcturus Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arcturus Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arcturus Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arcturus Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.