Armata Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ARMP Stock | USD 6.12 0.12 2.00% |
Armata Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Armata Pharmaceuticals' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Armata Pharmaceuticals' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Armata Pharmaceuticals fundamentals over time.
As of today, The RSI of Armata Pharmaceuticals' share price is at 50. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Armata Pharmaceuticals, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.41) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.64) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.09) | Wall Street Target Price 12 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.42) |
Using Armata Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Armata Pharmaceuticals from the perspective of Armata Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Armata Pharmaceuticals using Armata Pharmaceuticals' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Armata using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Armata Pharmaceuticals' stock price.
Armata Pharmaceuticals Implied Volatility | 4.14 |
Armata Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Armata Pharmaceuticals stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Armata Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Armata Pharmaceuticals stock will not fluctuate a lot when Armata Pharmaceuticals' options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Armata Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 6.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.75. Armata Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price | USD 6.12 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Armata Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Armata Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Armata Pharmaceuticals' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Armata Pharmaceuticals' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Armata Pharmaceuticals stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Armata Pharmaceuticals' open interest, investors have to compare it to Armata Pharmaceuticals' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Armata Pharmaceuticals is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Armata. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Armata Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Armata price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Armata using various technical indicators. When you analyze Armata charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Armata Pharmaceuticals Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Armata Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 6.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Armata Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Armata Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Armata Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Armata Pharmaceuticals | Armata Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Armata Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Armata Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Armata Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.06 and 13.51, respectively. We have considered Armata Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Armata Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Armata Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0663 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3856 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0622 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.7496 |
Predictive Modules for Armata Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Armata Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Armata Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Armata Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Armata Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Armata Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Armata Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Armata Pharmaceuticals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Armata Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. Armata Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.31 and 13.55, respectively. We have considered Armata Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Armata Pharmaceuticals is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Armata Pharmaceuticals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Armata Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Armata Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Armata Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Armata Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.46 | 7.41 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
6.12 | 6.12 | 0.00 |
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Armata Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline
Armata Pharmaceuticals is presently traded for 6.12. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Armata is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.46%. %. The volatility of related hype on Armata Pharmaceuticals is about 5040.82%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.19. About 69.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.66. Armata Pharmaceuticals last dividend was issued on the 10th of May 2019. The entity had 1:14 split on the 10th of May 2019. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Armata Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.Armata Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Armata Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Armata Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how Armata Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Armata Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SGMO | Sangamo Therapeutics | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 7.69 | (6.98) | 21.63 | |
| IMDX | Insight Molecular Diagnostics | 0.23 | 8 per month | 4.54 | 0 | 9.03 | (6.67) | 22.08 | |
| CCCC | C4 Therapeutics | (0.03) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 8.16 | (7.32) | 24.93 | |
| CDXS | Codexis | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 5.66 | (7.74) | 22.77 | |
| OABI | OmniAb Inc | 0.16 | 10 per month | 2.55 | 0.06 | 7.97 | (5.16) | 15.52 | |
| GNFT | Genfit SA | 0.83 | 12 per month | 3.86 | 0.12 | 7.34 | (7.71) | 25.18 | |
| NVCT | Nuvectis Pharma | (0.05) | 7 per month | 2.70 | 0.13 | 7.20 | (4.81) | 17.12 | |
| NTHI | NeOnc Technologies Holdings | 0.07 | 6 per month | 7.51 | 0.02 | 9.99 | (11.89) | 41.97 | |
| SLS | Sellas Life Sciences | 0.24 | 9 per month | 4.83 | 0.20 | 14.94 | (7.41) | 34.72 | |
| IPHA | Innate Pharma | (0.01) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.02 | (5.21) | 39.49 |
Other Forecasting Options for Armata Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in Armata, whether a beginner or expert, Armata Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Armata Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Armata. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Armata Pharmaceuticals' price trends.Armata Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Armata Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Armata Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Armata Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Armata Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Armata Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Armata Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Armata Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Armata Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Armata Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Armata Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Armata Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting armata stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 7.34 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.43 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 14.79 | |||
| Variance | 218.75 | |||
| Downside Variance | 55.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 41.4 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (8.78) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Armata Pharmaceuticals
The number of cover stories for Armata Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and Armata Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Armata Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Armata Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Armata Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
Armata Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Armata Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Armata Pharmaceuticals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Armata Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Armata Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.3 M |
Additional Tools for Armata Stock Analysis
When running Armata Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure Armata Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Armata Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of Armata Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Armata Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Armata Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Armata Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.