Arwana Citramulia Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| ARNA Stock | IDR 740.00 5.00 0.67% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Arwana Citramulia Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 740.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 447.50. Arwana Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Arwana |
Arwana Citramulia Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Arwana Citramulia Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 740.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.58, mean absolute percentage error of 149.68, and the sum of the absolute errors of 447.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arwana Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arwana Citramulia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Arwana Citramulia Stock Forecast Pattern
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Arwana Citramulia Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Arwana Citramulia's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arwana Citramulia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 738.62 and 741.38, respectively. We have considered Arwana Citramulia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arwana Citramulia stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arwana Citramulia stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.4433 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.2288 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 7.5847 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0106 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 447.5 |
Predictive Modules for Arwana Citramulia
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arwana Citramulia Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Arwana Citramulia
For every potential investor in Arwana, whether a beginner or expert, Arwana Citramulia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arwana Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arwana. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arwana Citramulia's price trends.Arwana Citramulia Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arwana Citramulia stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arwana Citramulia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arwana Citramulia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arwana Citramulia Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Arwana Citramulia's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Arwana Citramulia's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Arwana Citramulia Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arwana Citramulia stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arwana Citramulia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arwana Citramulia stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arwana Citramulia Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Arwana Citramulia Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arwana Citramulia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arwana Citramulia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arwana stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8578 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6752 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Variance | 1.84 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.15 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4559 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.76) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Arwana Citramulia financial ratios help investors to determine whether Arwana Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Arwana with respect to the benefits of owning Arwana Citramulia security.