Fagron NV OTC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ARSUF Stock  USD 26.81  0.00  0.00%   
Fagron OTC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fagron NV's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 28th of January 2026 The value of RSI of Fagron NV's share price is above 80 . This suggests that the otc stock is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 100

 Buy Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Fagron NV stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Fagron NV shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Fagron NV's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Fagron NV and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Fagron NV's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Fagron NV, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Fagron NV based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using Fagron NV hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fagron NV from the perspective of Fagron NV response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fagron NV on the next trading day is expected to be 28.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.10.

Fagron NV after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 26.82  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fagron NV to cross-verify your projections.

Fagron NV Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Fagron price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fagron using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fagron charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Fagron NV is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Fagron NV value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Fagron NV Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fagron NV on the next trading day is expected to be 28.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.10.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fagron OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fagron NV's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fagron NV OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Fagron NV  Fagron NV Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Fagron NV Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Fagron NV's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fagron NV's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.59 and 30.23, respectively. We have considered Fagron NV's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
26.81
28.41
Expected Value
30.23
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fagron NV otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fagron NV otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.4683
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2311
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0093
SAESum of the absolute errors14.0973
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Fagron NV. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Fagron NV. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Fagron NV

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fagron NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fagron NV's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
25.0026.8228.64
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
20.0121.8329.49
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
21.4624.4727.47
Details

Fagron NV After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Fagron NV at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fagron NV or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of Fagron NV, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Fagron NV Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Fagron NV's otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fagron NV's historical news coverage. Fagron NV's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.00 and 28.64, respectively. We have considered Fagron NV's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
26.81
26.82
After-hype Price
28.64
Upside
Fagron NV is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fagron NV is based on 3 months time horizon.

Fagron NV OTC Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as Fagron NV is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fagron NV backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fagron NV, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.23 
1.82
  0.01 
  0.01 
4 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
26.81
26.82
0.04 
4,550  
Notes

Fagron NV Hype Timeline

Fagron NV is presently traded for 26.81. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Fagron is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 26.82 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is anticipated to be 0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.23%. The volatility of related hype on Fagron NV is about 3791.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.80. The company reported the revenue of 683.9 M. Net Income was 61 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 402.6 M. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 4 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fagron NV to cross-verify your projections.

Fagron NV Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Fagron NV's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fagron NV's future price movements. Getting to know how Fagron NV's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fagron NV may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
DMPHFDermapharm Holding SE 0.04 8 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
HTSUFHisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co 0.04 4 per month 0.00  0.23  17.37 (10.40) 2.63 
TSMRFTsumura Co 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
NPNKFNippon Shinyaku Co 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.04) 8.48 (10.07) 12.06 
CASBFCanSino Biologics 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.11) 0.00 (3.60) 18.06 
EBOSYEBOS Group Limited 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.22) 0.00  0.00  6.54 
NURPFNeuren Pharmaceuticals Limited(0.19)32 per month 0.00 (0.06) 0.16 (5.11) 20.18 
CURLFCuraleaf Holdings 0.04 12 per month 7.81  0.02  9.88 (10.45) 69.91 
STSEYStratec SE 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.19) 0.00  0.00  13.88 
GTBIFGreen Thumb Industries(0.41)7 per month 5.22  0.03  11.32 (7.24) 67.92 

Other Forecasting Options for Fagron NV

For every potential investor in Fagron, whether a beginner or expert, Fagron NV's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fagron OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fagron. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fagron NV's price trends.

Fagron NV Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fagron NV otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fagron NV could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fagron NV by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fagron NV Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fagron NV otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fagron NV shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fagron NV otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fagron NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Fagron NV Risk Indicators

The analysis of Fagron NV's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fagron NV's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fagron otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Fagron NV

The number of cover stories for Fagron NV depends on current market conditions and Fagron NV's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fagron NV is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fagron NV's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Fagron NV Short Properties

Fagron NV's future price predictability will typically decrease when Fagron NV's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fagron NV often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fagron NV's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fagron NV's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Dividends Paid13 M
Shares Float66.4 M

Other Information on Investing in Fagron OTC Stock

Fagron NV financial ratios help investors to determine whether Fagron OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Fagron with respect to the benefits of owning Fagron NV security.