Arts Way Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ARTW Stock | USD 2.46 0.01 0.40% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Arts Way Manufacturing Co on the next trading day is expected to be 2.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.15. Arts Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the rsi of Arts Way's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.584 | Wall Street Target Price 7 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.095 |
Using Arts Way hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arts Way Manufacturing Co from the perspective of Arts Way response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Arts Way Manufacturing Co on the next trading day is expected to be 2.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.15. Arts Way after-hype prediction price | USD 2.47 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arts Way to cross-verify your projections. Arts Way Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Arts price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arts using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arts charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Arts Way Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Arts Way Manufacturing Co on the next trading day is expected to be 2.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arts Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arts Way's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Arts Way Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Arts Way | Arts Way Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Arts Way Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Arts Way's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arts Way's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 5.81, respectively. We have considered Arts Way's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arts Way stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arts Way stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.0937 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0027 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0526 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0227 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.1533 |
Predictive Modules for Arts Way
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arts Way Manufacturing. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arts Way's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Arts Way After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Arts Way at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arts Way or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arts Way, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Arts Way Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Arts Way's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arts Way's historical news coverage. Arts Way's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.12 and 5.82, respectively. We have considered Arts Way's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Arts Way is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arts Way Manufacturing is based on 3 months time horizon.
Arts Way Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Arts Way is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arts Way backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arts Way, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 3.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.46 | 2.47 | 0.00 |
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Arts Way Hype Timeline
Arts Way Manufacturing is presently traded for 2.46. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Arts is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Arts Way is about 5153.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.46. About 53.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.91. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Arts Way Manufacturing last dividend was issued on the 10th of February 2015. The entity had 2:1 split on the 31st of July 2008. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arts Way to cross-verify your projections.Arts Way Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Arts Way's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arts Way's future price movements. Getting to know how Arts Way's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arts Way may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ZDAI | Primega Group Holdings | 0.05 | 7 per month | 6.15 | 0.06 | 19.57 | (8.82) | 57.23 | |
| HYFM | Hydrofarm Holdings Group | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 12.26 | (9.50) | 47.42 | |
| TLIH | Ten League International Holdings | 0.11 | 3 per month | 4.36 | 0 | 11.63 | (8.00) | 40.97 | |
| HKPD | Hong Kong Pharma | (0.01) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.67 | (8.08) | 65.54 | |
| PSIG | PS International Group | 0.13 | 7 per month | 3.22 | 0.02 | 8.05 | (5.30) | 18.09 | |
| LSH | Lakeside Holding Limited | 0.22 | 10 per month | 4.11 | (0.01) | 11.76 | (6.90) | 29.26 | |
| LBGJ | Li Bang International | (0.02) | 11 per month | 4.54 | 0.07 | 7.94 | (7.81) | 32.34 | |
| VRME | VerifyMe | 0.02 | 9 per month | 4.96 | 0.05 | 12.24 | (8.60) | 66.36 | |
| AQMS | Aqua Metals | 0.08 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 11.04 | (15.48) | 58.35 | |
| PASW | Ping An Biomedical | 0.08 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 7.41 | (14.29) | 102.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for Arts Way
For every potential investor in Arts, whether a beginner or expert, Arts Way's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arts Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arts. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arts Way's price trends.Arts Way Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arts Way stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arts Way could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arts Way by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arts Way Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arts Way stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arts Way shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arts Way stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arts Way Manufacturing Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0041 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.00) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2.46 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2.46 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) |
Arts Way Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arts Way's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arts Way's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arts stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.42 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.37 | |||
| Variance | 11.35 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.73 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.3 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.73) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Arts Way
The number of cover stories for Arts Way depends on current market conditions and Arts Way's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arts Way is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arts Way's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Arts Way Short Properties
Arts Way's future price predictability will typically decrease when Arts Way's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Arts Way Manufacturing Co often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Arts Way's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arts Way's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1860.00 |
Additional Tools for Arts Stock Analysis
When running Arts Way's price analysis, check to measure Arts Way's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arts Way is operating at the current time. Most of Arts Way's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arts Way's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arts Way's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arts Way to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.