Arrow Electronics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ARW Stock  USD 111.53  1.97  1.74%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arrow Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 112.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 91.62. Arrow Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Arrow Electronics' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Arrow Electronics' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Arrow Electronics and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Arrow Electronics' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Arrow Electronics, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Arrow Electronics' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.112
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
3.8025
EPS Estimate Current Year
10.21
EPS Estimate Next Year
11.8175
Wall Street Target Price
108.25
Using Arrow Electronics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arrow Electronics from the perspective of Arrow Electronics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Arrow Electronics using Arrow Electronics' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Arrow using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Arrow Electronics' stock price.

Arrow Electronics Short Interest

An investor who is long Arrow Electronics may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Arrow Electronics and may potentially protect profits, hedge Arrow Electronics with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
117.5563
Short Percent
0.0842
Short Ratio
7.05
Shares Short Prior Month
3.6 M
50 Day MA
111.6188

Arrow Electronics Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Arrow Electronics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Arrow. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Arrow can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Arrow Electronics. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Arrow Electronics' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Arrow Electronics.

Arrow Electronics Implied Volatility

    
  0.4  
Arrow Electronics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Arrow Electronics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Arrow Electronics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Arrow Electronics stock will not fluctuate a lot when Arrow Electronics' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arrow Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 112.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 91.62.

Arrow Electronics after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 111.56  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arrow Electronics to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Arrow Stock please use our How to Invest in Arrow Electronics guide.At this time, Arrow Electronics' Inventory Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Asset Turnover is likely to climb to 2.04 in 2026, whereas Payables Turnover is likely to drop 2.44 in 2026. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to climb to about 91.6 M in 2026. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to climb to about 507.4 M in 2026.

Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Arrow Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Arrow Electronics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Arrow Electronics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Arrow Electronics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Arrow Electronics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Arrow Electronics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Arrow Electronics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Arrow. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Arrow Electronics Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Arrow price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arrow using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arrow charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Arrow Electronics' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1985-12-31
Previous Quarter
222 M
Current Value
213.6 M
Quarterly Volatility
246.9 M
 
Black Monday
 
Oil Shock
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Arrow Electronics is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Arrow Electronics value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Arrow Electronics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 9th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arrow Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 112.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.48, mean absolute percentage error of 3.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 91.62.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arrow Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arrow Electronics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Arrow Electronics Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Arrow ElectronicsArrow Electronics Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Arrow Electronics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Arrow Electronics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arrow Electronics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 111.30 and 114.37, respectively. We have considered Arrow Electronics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
111.53
111.30
Downside
112.83
Expected Value
114.37
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arrow Electronics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arrow Electronics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.1532
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.4777
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0132
SAESum of the absolute errors91.6196
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Arrow Electronics. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Arrow Electronics. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Arrow Electronics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arrow Electronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
109.96111.56113.16
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
108.81110.41112.01
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
98.51108.25120.16
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.882.953.03
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Arrow Electronics

For every potential investor in Arrow, whether a beginner or expert, Arrow Electronics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arrow Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arrow. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arrow Electronics' price trends.

Arrow Electronics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arrow Electronics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arrow Electronics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arrow Electronics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Arrow Electronics Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Arrow Electronics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Arrow Electronics' current price.

Arrow Electronics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arrow Electronics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arrow Electronics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arrow Electronics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arrow Electronics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Arrow Electronics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Arrow Electronics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arrow Electronics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arrow stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Arrow Stock Analysis

When running Arrow Electronics' price analysis, check to measure Arrow Electronics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arrow Electronics is operating at the current time. Most of Arrow Electronics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arrow Electronics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arrow Electronics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arrow Electronics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.