Amer Sports Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AS Stock | 37.72 1.23 3.37% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amer Sports on the next trading day is expected to be 36.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.49. Amer Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Amer Sports' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.273 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.28 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.9286 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.1672 | Wall Street Target Price 47.4348 |
Using Amer Sports hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Amer Sports from the perspective of Amer Sports response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Amer Sports using Amer Sports' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Amer using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Amer Sports' stock price.
Amer Sports Short Interest
An investor who is long Amer Sports may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Amer Sports and may potentially protect profits, hedge Amer Sports with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 34.6265 | Short Percent 0.0711 | Short Ratio 3.06 | Shares Short Prior Month 12.4 M | 50 Day MA 36.3592 |
Amer Sports Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Amer Sports' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Amer. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Amer can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Amer Sports. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Amer Sports Implied Volatility | 0.64 |
Amer Sports' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Amer Sports stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Amer Sports' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Amer Sports stock will not fluctuate a lot when Amer Sports' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amer Sports on the next trading day is expected to be 36.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.49. Amer Sports after-hype prediction price | USD 37.72 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amer Sports to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Amer contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Amer Sports will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.04% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Amer Sports trading at USD 37.72, that is roughly USD 0.0151 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Amer Sports' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Amer Sports options at the current volatility level of 0.64%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Amer Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Amer Sports' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Amer Sports' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Amer Sports stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Amer Sports' open interest, investors have to compare it to Amer Sports' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Amer Sports is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Amer. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Amer Sports Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Amer price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Amer using various technical indicators. When you analyze Amer charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Amer Sports' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 310.9 M | Current Value 349.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 56.8 M |
Amer Sports Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amer Sports on the next trading day is expected to be 36.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71, mean absolute percentage error of 0.72, and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.49.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amer Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amer Sports' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Amer Sports Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Amer Sports | Amer Sports Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Amer Sports Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Amer Sports' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amer Sports' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.05 and 38.66, respectively. We have considered Amer Sports' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amer Sports stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amer Sports stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7814 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.713 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0204 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 43.4928 |
Predictive Modules for Amer Sports
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amer Sports. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amer Sports' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Amer Sports After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Amer Sports at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Amer Sports or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Amer Sports, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Amer Sports Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Amer Sports' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Amer Sports' historical news coverage. Amer Sports' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 35.41 and 40.03, respectively. We have considered Amer Sports' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Amer Sports is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Amer Sports is based on 3 months time horizon.
Amer Sports Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Amer Sports is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Amer Sports backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Amer Sports, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 2.31 | 0.25 | 0.15 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
37.72 | 37.72 | 0.00 |
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Amer Sports Hype Timeline
As of January 23, 2026 Amer Sports is listed for 37.72. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.25, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.15. Amer is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.25%. %. The volatility of related hype on Amer Sports is about 381.82%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.87. About 66.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Amer Sports was presently reported as 10.15. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.55. Amer Sports had not issued any dividends in recent years. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amer Sports to cross-verify your projections.Amer Sports Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Amer Sports' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Amer Sports' future price movements. Getting to know how Amer Sports' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Amer Sports may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| APTV | Aptiv PLC | 2.89 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.41 | (4.26) | 11.51 | |
| DKS | Dicks Sporting Goods | 0.71 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.13 | (3.41) | 14.16 | |
| BURL | Burlington Stores | (0.49) | 16 per month | 2.99 | 0.05 | 4.29 | (3.49) | 17.25 | |
| PKG | Packaging Corp of | (0.49) | 14 per month | 1.53 | 0.05 | 2.94 | (2.32) | 8.20 | |
| GPC | Genuine Parts Co | (0.49) | 26 per month | 1.31 | 0.01 | 2.82 | (1.86) | 7.35 | |
| AMCR | Amcor PLC | (0.49) | 11 per month | 1.77 | 0.02 | 2.00 | (1.88) | 10.51 | |
| BBY | Best Buy Co | 1.03 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.36 | (2.85) | 10.22 | |
| LULU | Lululemon Athletica | (0.30) | 2 per month | 2.39 | 0.04 | 4.31 | (3.90) | 16.10 | |
| NIO | Nio Class A | (0.02) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 3.87 | (5.45) | 11.98 | |
| CASY | Caseys General Stores | 3.70 | 8 per month | 1.49 | 0.05 | 2.23 | (2.25) | 9.89 |
Other Forecasting Options for Amer Sports
For every potential investor in Amer, whether a beginner or expert, Amer Sports' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amer Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amer. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amer Sports' price trends.Amer Sports Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amer Sports stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amer Sports could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amer Sports by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Amer Sports Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amer Sports stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amer Sports shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amer Sports stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amer Sports entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 176728.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.7455 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 36.92 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 37.18 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.42 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.23 |
Amer Sports Risk Indicators
The analysis of Amer Sports' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amer Sports' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amer stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.5 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.26 | |||
| Variance | 5.09 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.0 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.26 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.05) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Amer Sports
The number of cover stories for Amer Sports depends on current market conditions and Amer Sports' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Amer Sports is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Amer Sports' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Amer Sports Short Properties
Amer Sports' future price predictability will typically decrease when Amer Sports' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Amer Sports often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Amer Sports' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amer Sports' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 501.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 345.4 M |
Additional Tools for Amer Stock Analysis
When running Amer Sports' price analysis, check to measure Amer Sports' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amer Sports is operating at the current time. Most of Amer Sports' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amer Sports' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amer Sports' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amer Sports to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.