PT Astra Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ASJA Stock | EUR 0.35 0.01 2.78% |
ASJA Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of PT Astra's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 6th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of PT Astra's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.10) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) |
Using PT Astra hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PT Astra International from the perspective of PT Astra response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PT Astra International on the next trading day is expected to be 0.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.72. PT Astra after-hype prediction price | EUR 0.45 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
ASJA |
PT Astra Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ASJA price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ASJA using various technical indicators. When you analyze ASJA charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
PT Astra Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PT Astra International on the next trading day is expected to be 0.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0003, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.72.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ASJA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PT Astra's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
PT Astra Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PT Astra | PT Astra Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
PT Astra Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting PT Astra's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PT Astra's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 6.95, respectively. We have considered PT Astra's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PT Astra stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PT Astra stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.1216 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0024 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0121 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0361 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.7233 |
Predictive Modules for PT Astra
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PT Astra International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.PT Astra After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of PT Astra at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in PT Astra or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of PT Astra, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
PT Astra Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting PT Astra's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PT Astra's historical news coverage. PT Astra's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.02 and 7.06, respectively. We have considered PT Astra's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
PT Astra is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PT Astra International is based on 3 months time horizon.
PT Astra Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PT Astra is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PT Astra backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PT Astra, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 6.61 | 1.06 | 0.08 | 5 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.35 | 0.45 | 29.25 |
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PT Astra Hype Timeline
PT Astra International is presently traded for 0.35on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. ASJA is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 0.45 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 38.14%. The price rise on the next news is forecasted to be 29.25%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.36%. The volatility of related hype on PT Astra is about 3122.83%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.43. PT Astra International has accumulated 48.63 T in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.39, which is about average as compared to similar companies. PT Astra International has a current ratio of 1.48, which is within standard range for the sector. Debt can assist PT Astra until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, PT Astra's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like PT Astra International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for ASJA to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about PT Astra's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PT Astra to cross-verify your projections.PT Astra Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to PT Astra's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PT Astra's future price movements. Getting to know how PT Astra's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how PT Astra may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GRU | Geely Automobile Holdings | (0.04) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 1.60 | (2.59) | 7.61 | |
| AS7 | ANTA Sports Products | 0.12 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.38 | (2.24) | 5.35 | |
| 4GF | Grupo Carso SAB | 0.1 | 5 per month | 3.02 | (0) | 5.36 | (3.45) | 20.23 | |
| WN6 | Carsales | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 1.76 | (3.00) | 10.28 | |
| D2V | PARKEN Sport Entertainment | 1.10 | 5 per month | 2.42 | 0.08 | 4.82 | (3.74) | 11.86 | |
| 02G | Guangzhou Automobile Group | (0.01) | 4 per month | 2.48 | 0.04 | 5.88 | (5.13) | 22.05 |
Other Forecasting Options for PT Astra
For every potential investor in ASJA, whether a beginner or expert, PT Astra's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ASJA Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ASJA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PT Astra's price trends.PT Astra Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PT Astra stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PT Astra could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PT Astra by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PT Astra Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PT Astra stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PT Astra shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PT Astra stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PT Astra International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
PT Astra Risk Indicators
The analysis of PT Astra's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PT Astra's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting asja stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.26 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.76 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.3 | |||
| Variance | 39.63 | |||
| Downside Variance | 53.3 | |||
| Semi Variance | 22.68 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (7.01) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PT Astra
The number of cover stories for PT Astra depends on current market conditions and PT Astra's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that PT Astra is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about PT Astra's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in ASJA Stock
PT Astra financial ratios help investors to determine whether ASJA Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ASJA with respect to the benefits of owning PT Astra security.