Aberforth Smaller Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| ASL Stock | 1,652 24.00 1.47% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Aberforth Smaller Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 1,617 with a mean absolute deviation of 20.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,259. Aberforth Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Aberforth Smaller stock prices and determine the direction of Aberforth Smaller Companies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Aberforth Smaller's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Aberforth Smaller's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.52) | Wall Street Target Price 13.1 K | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.50) |
Using Aberforth Smaller hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aberforth Smaller Companies from the perspective of Aberforth Smaller response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Aberforth Smaller Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 1,617 with a mean absolute deviation of 20.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,259. Aberforth Smaller after-hype prediction price | GBX 1652.17 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Aberforth |
Aberforth Smaller Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aberforth price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aberforth using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aberforth charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aberforth Smaller Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Aberforth Smaller Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 1,617 with a mean absolute deviation of 20.31, mean absolute percentage error of 698.71, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,259.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aberforth Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aberforth Smaller's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aberforth Smaller Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aberforth Smaller | Aberforth Smaller Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aberforth Smaller Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aberforth Smaller's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aberforth Smaller's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,617 and 1,618, respectively. We have considered Aberforth Smaller's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aberforth Smaller stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aberforth Smaller stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 126.4976 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 20.3144 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0132 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1259.4938 |
Predictive Modules for Aberforth Smaller
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aberforth Smaller. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aberforth Smaller After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aberforth Smaller at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aberforth Smaller or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aberforth Smaller, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aberforth Smaller Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aberforth Smaller's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aberforth Smaller's historical news coverage. Aberforth Smaller's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1,651 and 1,653, respectively. We have considered Aberforth Smaller's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aberforth Smaller is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aberforth Smaller is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aberforth Smaller Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aberforth Smaller is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aberforth Smaller backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aberforth Smaller, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 0.68 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 6 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
1,652 | 1,652 | 0.01 |
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Aberforth Smaller Hype Timeline
Aberforth Smaller is presently traded for 1,652on London Exchange of UK. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.17, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.17. Aberforth is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1652.17 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 45.33%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Aberforth Smaller is about 43.23%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1,652. The company reported the revenue of 169.16 M. Net Income was 50.06 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 83.83 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aberforth Smaller to cross-verify your projections.Aberforth Smaller Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aberforth Smaller's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aberforth Smaller's future price movements. Getting to know how Aberforth Smaller's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aberforth Smaller may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 0NIS | SBM Offshore NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | 0.21 | 3.03 | (1.89) | 8.93 | |
| OMI | Orosur Mining | (0.15) | 6 per month | 4.12 | 0.11 | 7.87 | (6.82) | 22.38 | |
| ISLN | iShares Physical Silver | (0.45) | 3 per month | 2.02 | 0.28 | 5.90 | (3.07) | 12.59 | |
| 0J39 | Harmony Gold Mining | (0.89) | 2 per month | 2.59 | 0.14 | 5.78 | (4.24) | 13.63 | |
| 0RQ9 | Lundin Mining Corp | 1.50 | 8 per month | 2.77 | 0.16 | 5.80 | (3.75) | 16.47 | |
| BRWM | Blackrock World Mining | 3.00 | 8 per month | 1.48 | 0.24 | 3.86 | (2.55) | 8.49 | |
| HOC | Hochschild Mining plc | 8.00 | 6 per month | 3.31 | 0.18 | 6.64 | (4.65) | 14.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aberforth Smaller
For every potential investor in Aberforth, whether a beginner or expert, Aberforth Smaller's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aberforth Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aberforth. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aberforth Smaller's price trends.Aberforth Smaller Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aberforth Smaller stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aberforth Smaller could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aberforth Smaller by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aberforth Smaller Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aberforth Smaller stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aberforth Smaller shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aberforth Smaller stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aberforth Smaller Companies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2758.07 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.6957 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1644.75 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1647.17 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 3.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 19.25 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 24.0 |
Aberforth Smaller Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aberforth Smaller's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aberforth Smaller's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aberforth stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5489 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4008 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7168 | |||
| Variance | 0.5138 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4781 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1606 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.62) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aberforth Smaller
The number of cover stories for Aberforth Smaller depends on current market conditions and Aberforth Smaller's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aberforth Smaller is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aberforth Smaller's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aberforth Smaller Short Properties
Aberforth Smaller's future price predictability will typically decrease when Aberforth Smaller's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aberforth Smaller Companies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aberforth Smaller's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aberforth Smaller's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 84.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 M |
Other Information on Investing in Aberforth Stock
Aberforth Smaller financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aberforth Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aberforth with respect to the benefits of owning Aberforth Smaller security.