ASML Holding Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ASML Stock | USD 1,389 5.96 0.43% |
ASML Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although ASML Holding's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of ASML Holding's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of ASML Holding fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of ASML Holding's stock price is about 68. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling ASML, making its price go up or down. Momentum 68
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.038 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 6.7886 | EPS Estimate Current Year 24.8907 | EPS Estimate Next Year 27.2907 | Wall Street Target Price 1.4 K |
Using ASML Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ASML Holding NV from the perspective of ASML Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ASML Holding using ASML Holding's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ASML using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ASML Holding's stock price.
ASML Holding Short Interest
An investor who is long ASML Holding may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ASML Holding and may potentially protect profits, hedge ASML Holding with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 888.451 | Short Percent 0.0033 | Short Ratio 0.96 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.2 M | 50 Day MA 1.1 K |
ASML Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ASML Holding NV on the next trading day is expected to be 1,389 with a mean absolute deviation of 22.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,323.ASML Holding NV Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ASML Holding's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ASML. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ASML can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ASML Holding NV. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ASML Holding's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ASML Holding.
ASML Holding Implied Volatility | 0.56 |
ASML Holding's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ASML Holding NV stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ASML Holding's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ASML Holding stock will not fluctuate a lot when ASML Holding's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ASML Holding NV on the next trading day is expected to be 1,389 with a mean absolute deviation of 22.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,323. ASML Holding after-hype prediction price | USD 1389.04 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ASML Holding to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ASML contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ASML Holding NV will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.035% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With ASML Holding trading at USD 1389.04, that is roughly USD 0.49 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ASML Holding's daily price movement you should consider acquiring ASML Holding NV options at the current volatility level of 0.56%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 ASML Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ASML Holding's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in ASML Holding's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for ASML Holding stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ASML Holding's open interest, investors have to compare it to ASML Holding's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ASML Holding is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ASML. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
ASML Holding Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ASML price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ASML using various technical indicators. When you analyze ASML charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ASML Holding Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ASML Holding NV on the next trading day is expected to be 1,389 with a mean absolute deviation of 22.04, mean absolute percentage error of 869.91, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,323.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ASML Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ASML Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ASML Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ASML Holding | ASML Holding Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ASML Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ASML Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ASML Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,386 and 1,392, respectively. We have considered ASML Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ASML Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ASML Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.041 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -5.6403 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 22.0427 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0196 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1322.56 |
Predictive Modules for ASML Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ASML Holding NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ASML Holding After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ASML Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ASML Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ASML Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ASML Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ASML Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ASML Holding's historical news coverage. ASML Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1,386 and 1,392, respectively. We have considered ASML Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ASML Holding is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ASML Holding NV is based on 3 months time horizon.
ASML Holding Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ASML Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ASML Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ASML Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.49 | 2.59 | 0.94 | 1.90 | 29 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 29 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1,389 | 1,389 | 0.00 |
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ASML Holding Hype Timeline
ASML Holding NV is presently traded for 1,389. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.94, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.9. ASML is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 135.6%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.49%. %. The volatility of related hype on ASML Holding is about 66.75%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1,391. About 19.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.51. ASML Holding NV recorded earning per share (EPS) of 28.48. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of October 2025. The firm had 8:9 split on the 1st of October 2007. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 29 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ASML Holding to cross-verify your projections.ASML Holding Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ASML Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ASML Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how ASML Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ASML Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | (3.12) | 5 per month | 3.00 | 0.03 | 6.39 | (4.81) | 16.84 | |
| MU | Micron Technology | 9.65 | 8 per month | 2.94 | 0.24 | 8.93 | (5.56) | 19.80 | |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corp | 4.20 | 7 per month | 2.50 | 0.19 | 6.26 | (4.85) | 12.15 | |
| KLAC | KLA Tencor | 3.63 | 9 per month | 2.18 | 0.14 | 4.89 | (4.19) | 12.91 | |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | 1.30 | 9 per month | 2.06 | 0.18 | 5.00 | (3.61) | 10.80 | |
| SAP | SAP SE ADR | (3.13) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 1.52 | (2.86) | 5.85 | |
| QCOM | Qualcomm Incorporated | 1.83 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.48 | (3.93) | 15.88 | |
| IBM | International Business Machines | (10.00) | 7 per month | 1.75 | (0) | 2.54 | (2.89) | 12.56 | |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems | (1.15) | 7 per month | 1.20 | 0.02 | 1.97 | (2.00) | 8.38 | |
| TXN | Texas Instruments Incorporated | 35.59 | 2 per month | 1.60 | 0.03 | 3.96 | (2.72) | 11.75 |
Other Forecasting Options for ASML Holding
For every potential investor in ASML, whether a beginner or expert, ASML Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ASML Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ASML. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ASML Holding's price trends.ASML Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ASML Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ASML Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ASML Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ASML Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ASML Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ASML Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ASML Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ASML Holding NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0216 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.20) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1378.32 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1381.89 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 30.09 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 7.75 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (5.96) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 68.85 |
ASML Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of ASML Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ASML Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting asml stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.9 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.54 | |||
| Variance | 6.45 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.09 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.7 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.15) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ASML Holding
The number of cover stories for ASML Holding depends on current market conditions and ASML Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ASML Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ASML Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ASML Holding Short Properties
ASML Holding's future price predictability will typically decrease when ASML Holding's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ASML Holding NV often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ASML Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ASML Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 393.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 12.7 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ASML Holding to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Is Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ASML Holding. If investors know ASML will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ASML Holding listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.038 | Dividend Share 1.84 | Earnings Share 28.48 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.007 |
The market value of ASML Holding NV is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ASML that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ASML Holding's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ASML Holding's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ASML Holding's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ASML Holding's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ASML Holding's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ASML Holding is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ASML Holding's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.