Ascendis Pharma Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ASND Stock | USD 226.10 2.15 0.96% |
Ascendis Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ascendis Pharma stock prices and determine the direction of Ascendis Pharma AS's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ascendis Pharma's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The RSI of Ascendis Pharma's share price is at 54. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ascendis Pharma, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Ascendis Pharma hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ascendis Pharma AS from the perspective of Ascendis Pharma response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ascendis Pharma AS on the next trading day is expected to be 226.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 303.87. Ascendis Pharma after-hype prediction price | USD 226.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ascendis Pharma to cross-verify your projections. Ascendis Pharma Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ascendis price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ascendis using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ascendis charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ascendis Pharma Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ascendis Pharma AS on the next trading day is expected to be 226.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.15, mean absolute percentage error of 44.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 303.87.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ascendis Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ascendis Pharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ascendis Pharma Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ascendis Pharma | Ascendis Pharma Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ascendis Pharma Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ascendis Pharma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ascendis Pharma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 223.62 and 229.09, respectively. We have considered Ascendis Pharma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ascendis Pharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ascendis Pharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.9326 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.1503 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0245 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 303.868 |
Predictive Modules for Ascendis Pharma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ascendis Pharma AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ascendis Pharma After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ascendis Pharma at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ascendis Pharma or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ascendis Pharma, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ascendis Pharma Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ascendis Pharma's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ascendis Pharma's historical news coverage. Ascendis Pharma's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 223.36 and 228.84, respectively. We have considered Ascendis Pharma's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ascendis Pharma is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ascendis Pharma AS is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ascendis Pharma Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ascendis Pharma is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ascendis Pharma backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ascendis Pharma, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 2.74 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
226.10 | 226.10 | 0.00 |
|
Ascendis Pharma Hype Timeline
Ascendis Pharma AS is presently traded for 226.10. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.28. Ascendis is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.23%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ascendis Pharma is about 226.26%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 226.38. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 4.59. Ascendis Pharma AS had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ascendis Pharma to cross-verify your projections.Ascendis Pharma Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ascendis Pharma's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ascendis Pharma's future price movements. Getting to know how Ascendis Pharma's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ascendis Pharma may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IONS | Ionis Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.65 | 0.08 | 3.19 | (2.67) | 8.08 | |
| BBIO | BridgeBio Pharma | 1.25 | 7 per month | 1.75 | 0.13 | 4.23 | (2.55) | 12.16 | |
| RVMD | Revolution Medicines | 12.18 | 8 per month | 2.99 | 0.18 | 4.56 | (2.52) | 45.50 | |
| ROIV | Roivant Sciences | (0.57) | 10 per month | 1.58 | 0.09 | 4.37 | (2.84) | 9.44 | |
| SMMT | Summit Therapeutics PLC | (2.80) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.41 | (5.97) | 23.61 | |
| GH | Guardant Health | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.93 | 0.09 | 4.16 | (3.15) | 14.51 | |
| MDGL | Madrigal Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.03 | 0.09 | 7.29 | (3.26) | 16.78 | |
| EXEL | Exelixis | (0.08) | 10 per month | 1.75 | 0.01 | 4.06 | (2.93) | 11.45 | |
| BMRN | Biomarin Pharmaceutical | 0.41 | 20 per month | 1.58 | 0.04 | 3.20 | (2.95) | 22.06 | |
| MRNA | Moderna | 1.72 | 9 per month | 4.03 | 0.16 | 10.85 | (7.01) | 23.11 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ascendis Pharma
For every potential investor in Ascendis, whether a beginner or expert, Ascendis Pharma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ascendis Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ascendis. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ascendis Pharma's price trends.Ascendis Pharma Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ascendis Pharma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ascendis Pharma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ascendis Pharma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ascendis Pharma Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ascendis Pharma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ascendis Pharma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ascendis Pharma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ascendis Pharma AS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ascendis Pharma Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ascendis Pharma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ascendis Pharma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ascendis stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.12 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.74 | |||
| Variance | 7.5 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.2 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.07 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ascendis Pharma
The number of cover stories for Ascendis Pharma depends on current market conditions and Ascendis Pharma's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ascendis Pharma is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ascendis Pharma's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Ascendis Pharma Short Properties
Ascendis Pharma's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ascendis Pharma's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ascendis Pharma AS often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ascendis Pharma's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ascendis Pharma's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 559.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ascendis Pharma to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Will Biotechnology sector continue expanding? Could Ascendis diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ascendis Pharma. If investors know Ascendis will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Ascendis Pharma data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Understanding Ascendis Pharma AS requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Ascendis's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Ascendis Pharma's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Ascendis Pharma's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Ascendis Pharma's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Ascendis Pharma represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Ascendis Pharma's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.