Alta Copper Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ATCU Stock | 1.27 0.09 6.62% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alta Copper Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 1.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.93. Alta Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Alta Copper's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Alta Copper's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Alta Copper fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of Alta Copper's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Alta Copper hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alta Copper Corp from the perspective of Alta Copper response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alta Copper Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 1.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.93. Alta Copper after-hype prediction price | CAD 1.42 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Alta |
Alta Copper Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alta price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alta using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alta charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alta Copper Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alta Copper Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 1.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alta Copper's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alta Copper Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alta Copper | Alta Copper Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Alta Copper Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alta Copper's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alta Copper's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 5.92, respectively. We have considered Alta Copper's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alta Copper stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alta Copper stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0021 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0328 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0308 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.9333 |
Predictive Modules for Alta Copper
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alta Copper Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alta Copper After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alta Copper at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alta Copper or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alta Copper, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alta Copper Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alta Copper's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alta Copper's historical news coverage. Alta Copper's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.07 and 6.09, respectively. We have considered Alta Copper's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alta Copper is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alta Copper Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alta Copper Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alta Copper is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alta Copper backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alta Copper, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.08 | 4.67 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 7 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
1.27 | 1.42 | 11.81 |
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Alta Copper Hype Timeline
Alta Copper Corp is presently traded for 1.27on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Alta is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.42 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 11.81%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 1.08%. The volatility of related hype on Alta Copper is about 7412.7%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.20. Alta Copper Corp has accumulated 198.22 K in total debt. Debt can assist Alta Copper until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Alta Copper's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Alta Copper Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Alta to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Alta Copper's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alta Copper to cross-verify your projections.Alta Copper Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alta Copper's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alta Copper's future price movements. Getting to know how Alta Copper's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alta Copper may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ALDE | Aldebaran Resources | (0.13) | 1 per month | 4.07 | 0.06 | 7.46 | (6.13) | 24.42 | |
| ASCU | Arizona Sonoran Copper | 0.15 | 7 per month | 2.47 | 0.24 | 5.56 | (5.14) | 17.24 | |
| ECU | Element 29 Resources | 0.00 | 7 per month | 2.58 | 0.11 | 6.25 | (4.85) | 12.61 | |
| FDY | Faraday Copper Corp | 0.13 | 2 per month | 2.14 | 0.24 | 6.44 | (4.33) | 14.47 | |
| HCH | Hot Chili | (0.02) | 8 per month | 4.17 | 0.18 | 12.90 | (7.78) | 24.96 | |
| HI | Highland Copper | 0.00 | 4 per month | 2.74 | 0.05 | 7.69 | (7.14) | 20.95 | |
| KCC | Kincora Copper | (0.02) | 2 per month | 5.10 | 0.07 | 8.65 | (9.28) | 49.54 | |
| LA | Los Andes Copper | (0.30) | 6 per month | 1.40 | 0.23 | 8.51 | (2.22) | 31.46 | |
| MARI | Marimaca Copper Corp | (0.44) | 8 per month | 1.93 | 0.03 | 4.40 | (3.62) | 11.92 | |
| VCU | Vizsla Copper Corp | 0.00 | 8 per month | 4.34 | 0.14 | 9.89 | (7.69) | 31.11 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alta Copper
For every potential investor in Alta, whether a beginner or expert, Alta Copper's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alta Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alta Copper's price trends.Alta Copper Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alta Copper stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alta Copper could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alta Copper by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alta Copper Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alta Copper stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alta Copper shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alta Copper stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alta Copper Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alta Copper Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alta Copper's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alta Copper's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alta stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.06 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.58 | |||
| Variance | 20.96 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.86 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.52 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.03) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alta Copper
The number of cover stories for Alta Copper depends on current market conditions and Alta Copper's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alta Copper is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alta Copper's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alta Copper Short Properties
Alta Copper's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alta Copper's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alta Copper Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alta Copper's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alta Copper's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 84.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 963.4 K |
Other Information on Investing in Alta Stock
Alta Copper financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alta Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alta with respect to the benefits of owning Alta Copper security.