Atmos Energy Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ATO Stock | USD 171.50 0.33 0.19% |
Atmos Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Atmos Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Atmos Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Atmos Energy fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Atmos Energy's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.256 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.3429 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.198 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.7603 | Wall Street Target Price 177 |
Using Atmos Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Atmos Energy from the perspective of Atmos Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Atmos Energy using Atmos Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Atmos using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Atmos Energy's stock price.
Atmos Energy Short Interest
An investor who is long Atmos Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Atmos Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge Atmos Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 164.5429 | Short Percent 0.0316 | Short Ratio 4.77 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.4 M | 50 Day MA 168.926 |
Atmos Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Atmos Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 171.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 71.26.Atmos Energy Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Atmos Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Atmos. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Atmos can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Atmos Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Atmos Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Atmos Energy.
Atmos Energy Implied Volatility | 0.34 |
Atmos Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Atmos Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Atmos Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Atmos Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Atmos Energy's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Atmos Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 171.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 71.26. Atmos Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 171.38 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Atmos Energy to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Atmos contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Atmos Energy will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0213% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Atmos Energy trading at USD 171.5, that is roughly USD 0.0364 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Atmos Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Atmos Energy options at the current volatility level of 0.34%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Atmos Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Atmos Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Atmos Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Atmos Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Atmos Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Atmos Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Atmos Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Atmos. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Atmos Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Atmos price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Atmos using various technical indicators. When you analyze Atmos charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Atmos Energy Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Atmos Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 171.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.17, mean absolute percentage error of 2.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 71.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Atmos Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Atmos Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Atmos Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Atmos Energy | Atmos Energy Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Atmos Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Atmos Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Atmos Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 170.55 and 172.45, respectively. We have considered Atmos Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Atmos Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Atmos Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.0466 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0826 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1682 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0069 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 71.259 |
Predictive Modules for Atmos Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Atmos Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Atmos Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Atmos Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Atmos Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Atmos Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Atmos Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Atmos Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Atmos Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Atmos Energy's historical news coverage. Atmos Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 170.43 and 172.33, respectively. We have considered Atmos Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Atmos Energy is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Atmos Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Atmos Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Atmos Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Atmos Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Atmos Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 0.95 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 11 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
171.50 | 171.38 | 0.07 |
|
Atmos Energy Hype Timeline
On the 6th of February Atmos Energy is traded for 171.50. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Atmos is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 171.38. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 31.67%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Atmos Energy is about 573.83%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 171.49. About 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.91. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Atmos Energy has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.05. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.8. The firm last dividend was issued on the 24th of November 2025. Atmos Energy had 3:2 split on the 17th of May 1994. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Atmos Energy to cross-verify your projections.Atmos Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Atmos Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Atmos Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Atmos Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Atmos Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GPJA | Georgia Power Co | 0.02 | 5 per month | 0.40 | (0.03) | 0.85 | (0.84) | 1.82 | |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans | (0.15) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 0.94 | (1.08) | 3.40 | |
| EMP | Entergy Mississippi LLC | (0.07) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 0.58 | (0.72) | 1.81 | |
| PCYO | Pure Cycle | (0.33) | 8 per month | 1.41 | (0.01) | 3.36 | (2.18) | 7.99 | |
| NXXT | NextNRG | (0.06) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 14.94 | (12.03) | 50.65 | |
| GWRS | Global Water Resources | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.21 | (3.48) | 9.15 | |
| NFE | New Fortress Energy | (0.03) | 9 per month | 5.95 | 0.05 | 14.41 | (8.53) | 45.05 | |
| ARTNA | Artesian Resources | (0.30) | 10 per month | 1.17 | 0.02 | 1.82 | (2.16) | 7.00 | |
| ELLO | Ellomay Capital | (0.55) | 8 per month | 1.98 | 0.12 | 7.54 | (4.28) | 18.68 |
Other Forecasting Options for Atmos Energy
For every potential investor in Atmos, whether a beginner or expert, Atmos Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Atmos Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Atmos. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Atmos Energy's price trends.Atmos Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Atmos Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Atmos Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Atmos Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Atmos Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Atmos Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Atmos Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Atmos Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Atmos Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 31818.96 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.1) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 171.91 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 171.77 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.58) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.33) |
Atmos Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Atmos Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Atmos Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting atmos stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7051 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9517 | |||
| Variance | 0.9057 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.54 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.41 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.59) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Atmos Energy
The number of cover stories for Atmos Energy depends on current market conditions and Atmos Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Atmos Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Atmos Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Atmos Energy Short Properties
Atmos Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Atmos Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Atmos Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Atmos Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Atmos Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 160.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 203.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Atmos Energy to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Atmos Stock, please use our How to Invest in Atmos Energy guide.You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Will Gas Utilities sector continue expanding? Could Atmos diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Atmos Energy. If investors know Atmos will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Atmos Energy data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.256 | Earnings Share 7.8 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.121 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Atmos Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Atmos that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Atmos Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Atmos Energy's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Atmos Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Atmos Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Atmos Energy's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Atmos Energy represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Atmos Energy's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.