Golden Minerals Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AUMN Stock | USD 0.27 0.01 3.57% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Golden Minerals on the next trading day is expected to be 0.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.98. Golden Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Golden Minerals' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Golden Minerals' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Golden Minerals fundamentals over time.
Golden |
Golden Minerals Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Golden Minerals' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1997-09-30 | Previous Quarter 1.4 M | Current Value 1.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 56.7 M |
Golden Minerals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Golden Minerals on the next trading day is expected to be 0.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0004, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Golden Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Golden Minerals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Golden Minerals Stock Forecast Pattern
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Golden Minerals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Golden Minerals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Golden Minerals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 6.01, respectively. We have considered Golden Minerals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Golden Minerals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Golden Minerals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.3329 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.016 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0549 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.9781 |
Predictive Modules for Golden Minerals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Golden Minerals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Golden Minerals
For every potential investor in Golden, whether a beginner or expert, Golden Minerals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Golden Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Golden. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Golden Minerals' price trends.View Golden Minerals Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Golden Minerals Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Golden Minerals' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Golden Minerals' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Golden Minerals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Golden Minerals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Golden Minerals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Golden Minerals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Golden Minerals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Golden Minerals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Golden Minerals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Golden Minerals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting golden stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.91 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.68 | |||
| Variance | 32.21 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
When determining whether Golden Minerals offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Golden Minerals' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Golden Minerals Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Golden Minerals Stock: Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Golden Minerals to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Golden Stock, please use our How to Invest in Golden Minerals guide.You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Is Precious Metals & Minerals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Golden Minerals. If investors know Golden will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Golden Minerals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.53) | Revenue Per Share 0.23 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.94) | Return On Assets (0.44) | Return On Equity (4.95) |
The market value of Golden Minerals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Golden that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Golden Minerals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Golden Minerals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Golden Minerals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Golden Minerals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Golden Minerals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Golden Minerals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Golden Minerals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.