Aveanna Healthcare Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AVAH Stock | USD 5.84 0.04 0.69% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 5.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.09. Aveanna Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Aveanna Healthcare's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Aveanna |
Aveanna Healthcare Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 5.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.09.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aveanna Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aveanna Healthcare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aveanna Healthcare Stock Forecast Pattern
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Aveanna Healthcare Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aveanna Healthcare's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aveanna Healthcare's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.03 and 9.73, respectively. We have considered Aveanna Healthcare's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aveanna Healthcare stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aveanna Healthcare stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0176 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1541 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0298 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.0922 |
Predictive Modules for Aveanna Healthcare
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aveanna Healthcare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Aveanna Healthcare
For every potential investor in Aveanna, whether a beginner or expert, Aveanna Healthcare's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aveanna Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aveanna. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aveanna Healthcare's price trends.View Aveanna Healthcare Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aveanna Healthcare Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aveanna Healthcare's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aveanna Healthcare's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Aveanna Healthcare Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aveanna Healthcare stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aveanna Healthcare shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aveanna Healthcare stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aveanna Healthcare Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 7902.95 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.1905 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 5.79 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 5.8 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.075 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.04 |
Aveanna Healthcare Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aveanna Healthcare's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aveanna Healthcare's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aveanna stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.75 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.31 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.82 | |||
| Variance | 14.57 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.15 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.97 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.02) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Aveanna Healthcare offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Aveanna Healthcare's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aveanna Healthcare to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aveanna Healthcare. If investors know Aveanna will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aveanna Healthcare listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.46) | Earnings Share (0.35) | Revenue Per Share 10.315 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.065 | Return On Assets 0.0488 |
The market value of Aveanna Healthcare is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aveanna that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aveanna Healthcare's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aveanna Healthcare's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aveanna Healthcare's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aveanna Healthcare's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aveanna Healthcare's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aveanna Healthcare is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aveanna Healthcare's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.