Avantis International Etf Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AVDE Etf | USD 87.84 0.67 0.76% |
Avantis Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Avantis International stock prices and determine the direction of Avantis International Equity's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Avantis International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Avantis International's etf price is about 69. This suggests that the etf is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Avantis, making its price go up or down. Momentum 69
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Avantis International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Avantis International Equity from the perspective of Avantis International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Avantis International using Avantis International's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Avantis using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Avantis International's stock price.
Avantis International Implied Volatility | 0.22 |
Avantis International's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Avantis International Equity stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Avantis International's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Avantis International stock will not fluctuate a lot when Avantis International's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Avantis International Equity on the next trading day is expected to be 87.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.92. Avantis International after-hype prediction price | USD 0.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Avantis International to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Avantis contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Avantis International Equity will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0138% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Avantis International trading at USD 87.84, that is roughly USD 0.0121 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Avantis International's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Avantis International Equity options at the current volatility level of 0.22%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Avantis Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Avantis International's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Avantis International's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Avantis International stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Avantis International's open interest, investors have to compare it to Avantis International's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Avantis International is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Avantis. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Avantis International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Avantis price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Avantis using various technical indicators. When you analyze Avantis charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Avantis International Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Avantis International Equity on the next trading day is expected to be 87.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48, mean absolute percentage error of 0.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.92.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Avantis Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Avantis International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Avantis International Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Avantis International | Avantis International Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Avantis International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Avantis International's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Avantis International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 87.14 and 88.54, respectively. We have considered Avantis International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Avantis International etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Avantis International etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.1913 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.156 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.482 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0059 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.92 |
Predictive Modules for Avantis International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avantis International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Avantis International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Avantis International After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Avantis International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Avantis International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Avantis International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Avantis International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Avantis International's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Avantis International's historical news coverage. Avantis International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 0.69, respectively. We have considered Avantis International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Avantis International is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Avantis International is based on 3 months time horizon.
Avantis International Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Avantis International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Avantis International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Avantis International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 0.70 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 23 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 23 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
87.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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Avantis International Hype Timeline
Avantis International is presently traded for 87.84. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.17, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Avantis is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 76.92%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.19%. %. The volatility of related hype on Avantis International is about 343.14%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 87.80. The company last dividend was issued on the 23rd of December 1970. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 23 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Avantis International to cross-verify your projections.Avantis International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Avantis International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Avantis International's future price movements. Getting to know how Avantis International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Avantis International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AVUS | Avantis Equity ETF | (3.20) | 5 per month | 0.70 | 0.05 | 1.29 | (1.25) | 3.18 | |
| AVDV | Avantis International Small | (0.12) | 5 per month | 0.29 | 0.25 | 1.38 | (0.94) | 2.59 | |
| DFAX | Dimensional World ex | 0.37 | 14 per month | 0.39 | 0.17 | 1.12 | (0.95) | 2.37 | |
| EZU | iShares MSCI Eurozone | (0.18) | 7 per month | 0.61 | 0.08 | 1.26 | (1.24) | 3.46 | |
| DUHP | Dimensional ETF Trust | (0.84) | 2 per month | 0.63 | (0.04) | 1.15 | (1.13) | 3.05 | |
| VUIAX | Vanguard Utilities Index | 1.52 | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.24 | (1.36) | 4.41 | |
| DFIC | Dimensional International Core | 0.37 | 5 per month | 0.36 | 0.17 | 1.10 | (1.07) | 2.45 | |
| DFAU | Dimensional Core Equity | 0.53 | 6 per month | 0.78 | (0.01) | 1.21 | (1.16) | 3.43 | |
| VTSIX | Vanguard Tax Managed Small Cap | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | 0.03 | 1.97 | (1.73) | 4.94 | |
| VDE | Vanguard Energy Index | (0.49) | 6 per month | 0.96 | 0.14 | 2.21 | (1.42) | 5.10 |
Other Forecasting Options for Avantis International
For every potential investor in Avantis, whether a beginner or expert, Avantis International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Avantis Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Avantis. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Avantis International's price trends.Avantis International Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Avantis International etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Avantis International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Avantis International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Avantis International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Avantis International etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Avantis International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Avantis International etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Avantis International Equity entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Avantis International Risk Indicators
The analysis of Avantis International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Avantis International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting avantis etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5473 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4093 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.677 | |||
| Variance | 0.4584 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4512 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1676 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.61) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Avantis International
The number of cover stories for Avantis International depends on current market conditions and Avantis International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Avantis International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Avantis International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Avantis International to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Understanding Avantis International requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Avantis's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Avantis International's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Avantis International's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Avantis International's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Avantis International represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Avantis International's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.