Advent Claymore Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AVK Fund | USD 11.86 0.05 0.42% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Advent Claymore Convertible on the next trading day is expected to be 11.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.02. Advent Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
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Advent Claymore Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Advent Claymore Convertible on the next trading day is expected to be 11.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.02.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Advent Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Advent Claymore's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Advent Claymore Fund Forecast Pattern
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Advent Claymore Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Advent Claymore's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Advent Claymore's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.08 and 12.91, respectively. We have considered Advent Claymore's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Advent Claymore fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Advent Claymore fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.8346 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0987 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0087 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.0186 |
Predictive Modules for Advent Claymore
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Advent Claymore Conv. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Advent Claymore's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Advent Claymore
For every potential investor in Advent, whether a beginner or expert, Advent Claymore's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Advent Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Advent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Advent Claymore's price trends.View Advent Claymore Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Advent Claymore Conv Technical and Predictive Analytics
The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Advent Claymore's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Advent Claymore's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Advent Claymore Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Advent Claymore fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Advent Claymore shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Advent Claymore fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Advent Claymore Convertible entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Advent Claymore Risk Indicators
The analysis of Advent Claymore's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Advent Claymore's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting advent fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6421 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8193 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9167 | |||
| Variance | 0.8403 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.787 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6713 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.75) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Advent Claymore financial ratios help investors to determine whether Advent Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Advent with respect to the benefits of owning Advent Claymore security.
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