Advent Claymore Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

AVK Fund  USD 12.58  0.04  0.32%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Advent Claymore Convertible on the next trading day is expected to be 12.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.83. Advent Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of Advent Claymore's share price is at 55. This suggests that the fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Advent Claymore, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 55

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Advent Claymore's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Advent Claymore Convertible, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Advent Claymore hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Advent Claymore Convertible from the perspective of Advent Claymore response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Advent Claymore Convertible on the next trading day is expected to be 12.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.83.

Advent Claymore after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 12.58  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advent Claymore to cross-verify your projections.

Advent Claymore Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Advent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Advent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Advent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Advent Claymore simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Advent Claymore Convertible are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Advent Claymore Conv prices get older.

Advent Claymore Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Advent Claymore Convertible on the next trading day is expected to be 12.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.83.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Advent Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Advent Claymore's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Advent Claymore Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Advent ClaymoreAdvent Claymore Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Advent Claymore Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Advent Claymore's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Advent Claymore's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.80 and 13.36, respectively. We have considered Advent Claymore's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.58
12.58
Expected Value
13.36
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Advent Claymore fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Advent Claymore fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.6079
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 5.0E-4
MADMean absolute deviation0.0805
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0065
SAESum of the absolute errors4.83
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Advent Claymore Convertible forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Advent Claymore observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Advent Claymore

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Advent Claymore Conv. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Advent Claymore's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.8012.5813.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.7412.5213.30
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
12.1012.4512.79
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Advent Claymore

For every potential investor in Advent, whether a beginner or expert, Advent Claymore's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Advent Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Advent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Advent Claymore's price trends.

Advent Claymore Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Advent Claymore fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Advent Claymore could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Advent Claymore by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Advent Claymore Conv Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Advent Claymore's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Advent Claymore's current price.

Advent Claymore Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Advent Claymore fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Advent Claymore shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Advent Claymore fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Advent Claymore Convertible entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Advent Claymore Risk Indicators

The analysis of Advent Claymore's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Advent Claymore's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting advent fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Advent Fund

Advent Claymore financial ratios help investors to determine whether Advent Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Advent with respect to the benefits of owning Advent Claymore security.
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