Avanos Medical Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AVNS Stock  USD 15.05  0.16  1.05%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Avanos Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 15.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.42. Avanos Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, Avanos Medical's Inventory Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is likely to gain to 6.25 in 2025, whereas Asset Turnover is likely to drop 0.58 in 2025. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to gain to about 51.7 M in 2025. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 47.7 M in 2025.

Open Interest Against 2025-04-17 Avanos Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Avanos Medical's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Avanos Medical's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Avanos Medical stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
2015Calls Open InterestPuts Open Interest100%
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Avanos Medical's open interest, investors have to compare it to Avanos Medical's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Avanos Medical is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Avanos. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Avanos Medical's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2012-12-31
Previous Quarter
89 M
Current Value
107.7 M
Quarterly Volatility
96.6 M
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Avanos Medical is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Avanos Medical value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Avanos Medical Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Avanos Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 15.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.42.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Avanos Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Avanos Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Avanos Medical Stock Forecast Pattern

JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Dec 9Dec 17Dec 26Jan 6Jan 15Jan 24Feb 3Feb 11Feb 20Feb 28Next 61516171819
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Avanos Medical Avanos Medical forecast
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Avanos Medical Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Avanos Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Avanos Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.14 and 17.37, respectively. We have considered Avanos Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.05
15.26
Expected Value
17.37
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Avanos Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Avanos Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.7538
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2527
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0152
SAESum of the absolute errors15.4174
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Avanos Medical. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Avanos Medical. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Avanos Medical

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avanos Medical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.9615.0917.22
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.5519.3521.48
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
14.7516.2717.79
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
20.4822.5024.98
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Avanos Medical

For every potential investor in Avanos, whether a beginner or expert, Avanos Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Avanos Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Avanos. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Avanos Medical's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Avanos Medical Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Avanos Medical's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Avanos Medical's current price.

Avanos Medical Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Avanos Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Avanos Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Avanos Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Avanos Medical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Avanos Medical Risk Indicators

The analysis of Avanos Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Avanos Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting avanos stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

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Additional Tools for Avanos Stock Analysis

When running Avanos Medical's price analysis, check to measure Avanos Medical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Avanos Medical is operating at the current time. Most of Avanos Medical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Avanos Medical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Avanos Medical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Avanos Medical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.