Avanos Medical Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| AVNS Stock | USD 13.10 0.24 1.87% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Avanos Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 12.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.76. Avanos Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Avanos Medical's stock price is slightly above 62. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Avanos, making its price go up or down. Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.38) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.25 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.9 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.95 | Wall Street Target Price 14 |
Using Avanos Medical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Avanos Medical from the perspective of Avanos Medical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Avanos Medical using Avanos Medical's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Avanos using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Avanos Medical's stock price.
Avanos Medical Short Interest
An investor who is long Avanos Medical may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Avanos Medical and may potentially protect profits, hedge Avanos Medical with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 11.871 | Short Percent 0.0798 | Short Ratio 4.95 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.8 M | 50 Day MA 11.6204 |
Avanos Medical Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Avanos Medical's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Avanos. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Avanos can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Avanos Medical. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Avanos Medical Implied Volatility | 1.64 |
Avanos Medical's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Avanos Medical stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Avanos Medical's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Avanos Medical stock will not fluctuate a lot when Avanos Medical's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Avanos Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 12.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.76. Avanos Medical after-hype prediction price | USD 13.14 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Avanos Medical to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Avanos contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Avanos Medical will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.1% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Avanos Medical trading at USD 13.1, that is roughly USD 0.0134 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Avanos Medical's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Avanos Medical options at the current volatility level of 1.64%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Avanos Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Avanos Medical's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Avanos Medical's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Avanos Medical stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Avanos Medical's open interest, investors have to compare it to Avanos Medical's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Avanos Medical is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Avanos. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Avanos Medical Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Avanos price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Avanos using various technical indicators. When you analyze Avanos charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Avanos Medical Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Avanos Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 12.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.76.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Avanos Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Avanos Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Avanos Medical Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Avanos Medical | Avanos Medical Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Avanos Medical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Avanos Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Avanos Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.80 and 14.39, respectively. We have considered Avanos Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Avanos Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Avanos Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.0901 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3187 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0272 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.7566 |
Predictive Modules for Avanos Medical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avanos Medical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Avanos Medical After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Avanos Medical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Avanos Medical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Avanos Medical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Avanos Medical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Avanos Medical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Avanos Medical's historical news coverage. Avanos Medical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.86 and 15.42, respectively. We have considered Avanos Medical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Avanos Medical is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Avanos Medical is based on 3 months time horizon.
Avanos Medical Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Avanos Medical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Avanos Medical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Avanos Medical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 2.29 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
13.10 | 13.14 | 0.31 |
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Avanos Medical Hype Timeline
Avanos Medical is presently traded for 13.10. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.13. Avanos is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 13.14 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.31%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.21%. The volatility of related hype on Avanos Medical is about 361.2%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.23. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 687.8 M. Net Loss for the year was (392.1 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 365.9 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Avanos Medical to cross-verify your projections.Avanos Medical Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Avanos Medical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Avanos Medical's future price movements. Getting to know how Avanos Medical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Avanos Medical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MRT | Marti Technologies | (0.01) | 8 per month | 2.43 | (0.03) | 7.59 | (4.02) | 20.77 | |
| TIMB | TIM Participacoes SA | (0.03) | 9 per month | 1.90 | 0.03 | 3.06 | (2.72) | 8.26 | |
| CCCC | C4 Therapeutics | 0.36 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 8.16 | (7.32) | 24.93 | |
| HOLO | MicroCloud Hologram | (0.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.57 | (8.22) | 15.30 | |
| IMMR | Immersion | 0.13 | 12 per month | 2.19 | (0.03) | 4.57 | (3.90) | 22.47 | |
| ABSOF | ABS CBN Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 40.00 | |
| HRZN | Horizon Technology Finance | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.79 | 0.12 | 2.53 | (1.59) | 11.64 | |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Holdings | (0.05) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.12 | (2.93) | 10.93 | |
| LSIIX | Loomis Sayles Investment | 6.10 | 5 per month | 0.16 | (0.59) | 0.20 | (0.30) | 0.61 | |
| HPQ | HP Inc | (0.14) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 2.73 | (3.97) | 10.78 |
Other Forecasting Options for Avanos Medical
For every potential investor in Avanos, whether a beginner or expert, Avanos Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Avanos Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Avanos. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Avanos Medical's price trends.Avanos Medical Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Avanos Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Avanos Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Avanos Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Avanos Medical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Avanos Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Avanos Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Avanos Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Avanos Medical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Avanos Medical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Avanos Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Avanos Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting avanos stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.24 | |||
| Variance | 5.0 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.91 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.06 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.07) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Avanos Medical
The number of cover stories for Avanos Medical depends on current market conditions and Avanos Medical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Avanos Medical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Avanos Medical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Avanos Medical Short Properties
Avanos Medical's future price predictability will typically decrease when Avanos Medical's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Avanos Medical often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Avanos Medical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Avanos Medical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 46 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 107.7 M |
Additional Tools for Avanos Stock Analysis
When running Avanos Medical's price analysis, check to measure Avanos Medical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Avanos Medical is operating at the current time. Most of Avanos Medical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Avanos Medical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Avanos Medical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Avanos Medical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.