Axogen Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| AXGN Stock | USD 34.00 0.11 0.32% |
Axogen Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Axogen's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Axogen's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Axogen fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Axogen's stock price is about 61. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Axogen, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.086 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.295 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.4983 | Wall Street Target Price 37 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.068 |
Using Axogen hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Axogen Inc from the perspective of Axogen response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Axogen using Axogen's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Axogen using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Axogen's stock price.
Axogen Short Interest
An investor who is long Axogen may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Axogen and may potentially protect profits, hedge Axogen with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 18.7243 | Short Percent 0.0637 | Short Ratio 3.67 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.7 M | 50 Day MA 30.434 |
Axogen Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Axogen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 34.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.86.Axogen Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Axogen's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Axogen. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Axogen can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Axogen Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Axogen's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Axogen.
Axogen Implied Volatility | 0.97 |
Axogen's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Axogen Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Axogen's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Axogen stock will not fluctuate a lot when Axogen's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Axogen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 34.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.86. Axogen after-hype prediction price | USD 34.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Axogen to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Axogen contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Axogen Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0606% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Axogen trading at USD 34.0, that is roughly USD 0.0206 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Axogen's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Axogen Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.97%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Axogen Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Axogen's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Axogen's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Axogen stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Axogen's open interest, investors have to compare it to Axogen's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Axogen is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Axogen. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Axogen Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Axogen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Axogen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Axogen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Axogen Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Axogen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 34.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83, mean absolute percentage error of 1.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Axogen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Axogen's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Axogen Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Axogen | Axogen Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Axogen Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Axogen's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Axogen's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.61 and 37.39, respectively. We have considered Axogen's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Axogen stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Axogen stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.7764 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2645 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8281 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0271 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 48.855 |
Predictive Modules for Axogen
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Axogen Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Axogen After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Axogen at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Axogen or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Axogen, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Axogen Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Axogen's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Axogen's historical news coverage. Axogen's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 30.81 and 37.59, respectively. We have considered Axogen's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Axogen is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Axogen Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Axogen Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Axogen is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Axogen backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Axogen, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.68 | 3.39 | 0.20 | 0.27 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
34.00 | 34.20 | 0.59 |
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Axogen Hype Timeline
Axogen Inc is presently traded for 34.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.2, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.27. Axogen is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 34.2 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.59%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.68%. The volatility of related hype on Axogen is about 856.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 33.73. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 187.34 M. Net Loss for the year was (9.96 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 160.52 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Axogen to cross-verify your projections.Axogen Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Axogen's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Axogen's future price movements. Getting to know how Axogen's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Axogen may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IRMD | Iradimed Co | (2.54) | 18 per month | 1.11 | 0.18 | 2.66 | (2.24) | 12.42 | |
| INMD | InMode | (0.17) | 8 per month | 1.88 | 0.01 | 2.37 | (2.29) | 11.78 | |
| IART | Integra LifeSciences Holdings | 0.19 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.40 | (4.33) | 23.46 | |
| TNDM | Tandem Diabetes Care | (0.02) | 8 per month | 2.94 | 0.10 | 7.03 | (4.34) | 27.14 | |
| AHCO | Adapthealth Corp | 0.21 | 6 per month | 2.20 | 0.02 | 4.17 | (3.28) | 24.44 | |
| CTEV | Claritev | (1.55) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 10.44 | (13.45) | 36.36 | |
| OPK | Opko Health | 0.05 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.03 | (3.08) | 9.92 | |
| LFMD | LifeMD Inc | (0.18) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 8.13 | (7.02) | 28.11 | |
| SANA | Sana Biotechnology | 0.06 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 12.59 | (8.77) | 25.63 | |
| TSHA | Taysha Gene Therapies | (0.01) | 8 per month | 4.80 | (0) | 7.92 | (8.03) | 21.14 |
Other Forecasting Options for Axogen
For every potential investor in Axogen, whether a beginner or expert, Axogen's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Axogen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Axogen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Axogen's price trends.Axogen Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Axogen stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Axogen could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Axogen by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Axogen Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Axogen stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Axogen shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Axogen stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Axogen Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 34.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 34.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.06) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.11) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 61.18 |
Axogen Risk Indicators
The analysis of Axogen's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Axogen's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting axogen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.67 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.32 | |||
| Variance | 18.68 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.9 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.05 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.38) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Axogen
The number of cover stories for Axogen depends on current market conditions and Axogen's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Axogen is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Axogen's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Axogen Short Properties
Axogen's future price predictability will typically decrease when Axogen's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Axogen Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Axogen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Axogen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 44.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 33.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Axogen to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Will Health Care Equipment & Supplies sector continue expanding? Could Axogen diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Axogen. If investors know Axogen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Axogen data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (0.05) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.235 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Investors evaluate Axogen Inc using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Axogen's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Axogen's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Axogen's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Axogen represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Axogen's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.