AXIS Capital Preferred Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

AXS-PE Preferred Stock  USD 20.31  0.11  0.54%   
AXIS Preferred Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast AXIS Capital stock prices and determine the direction of AXIS Capital Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of AXIS Capital's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of rsi of AXIS Capital's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the preferred stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of AXIS Capital's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of AXIS Capital and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from AXIS Capital's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with AXIS Capital Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using AXIS Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AXIS Capital Holdings from the perspective of AXIS Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

AXIS Capital after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 0.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as preferred stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AXIS Capital to cross-verify your projections.

AXIS Capital Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine AXIS price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AXIS using various technical indicators. When you analyze AXIS charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
AXIS Capital simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for AXIS Capital Holdings are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as AXIS Capital Holdings prices get older.

AXIS Capital Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AXIS Capital Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 20.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.23.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AXIS Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AXIS Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

AXIS Capital Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest AXIS CapitalAXIS Capital Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

AXIS Capital Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting AXIS Capital's Preferred Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AXIS Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.88 and 20.74, respectively. We have considered AXIS Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
20.31
20.31
Expected Value
20.74
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AXIS Capital preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AXIS Capital preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.4175
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0135
MADMean absolute deviation0.0705
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0035
SAESum of the absolute errors4.23
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting AXIS Capital Holdings forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent AXIS Capital observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for AXIS Capital

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AXIS Capital Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.000.43
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.000.43
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
19.8820.1320.39
Details

AXIS Capital After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of AXIS Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AXIS Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Preferred Stock prices, such as prices of AXIS Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

AXIS Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting AXIS Capital's preferred stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AXIS Capital's historical news coverage. AXIS Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 0.43, respectively. We have considered AXIS Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
20.31
0.00
After-hype Price
0.43
Upside
AXIS Capital is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AXIS Capital Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.

AXIS Capital Preferred Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AXIS Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AXIS Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Preferred Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AXIS Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.06 
0.43
 0.00  
  0.02 
0 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
20.31
0.00
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

AXIS Capital Hype Timeline

AXIS Capital Holdings is presently traded for 20.31. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.02. AXIS is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on AXIS Capital is about 151.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.29. About 23.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.19. AXIS Capital Holdings last dividend was issued on the 29th of December 2022. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AXIS Capital to cross-verify your projections.

AXIS Capital Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to AXIS Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AXIS Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how AXIS Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AXIS Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ACGLOArch Capital Group 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.24) 0.72 (0.87) 2.15 
ACTEnact Holdings(1.29)6 per month 1.25  0.03  2.09 (2.11) 8.01 
AGOAssured Guaranty 0.76 10 per month 0.92 (0.01) 1.86 (1.26) 10.58 
AHL-PDAspen Insurance Holdings 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.30) 0.96 (1.20) 3.02 
ALL-PHThe Allstate 0.00 0 per month 0.60 (0.16) 0.86 (0.95) 2.75 
AMBCAMBC Old(1.02)26 per month 2.11  0.06  3.67 (3.77) 20.03 
AMSFAMERISAFE(1.29)3 per month 0.00 (0.15) 1.81 (2.07) 6.30 
ATH-PAAthene Holding 0.00 0 per month 0.29 (0.23) 0.65 (0.49) 1.48 
AXSAXIS Capital Holdings 0.00 0 per month 1.09  0.08  2.01 (2.29) 8.59 
RNR-PFRenaissanceRe Holdings 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.31) 0.71 (0.91) 1.90 

Other Forecasting Options for AXIS Capital

For every potential investor in AXIS, whether a beginner or expert, AXIS Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AXIS Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AXIS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AXIS Capital's price trends.

AXIS Capital Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AXIS Capital preferred stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AXIS Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AXIS Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

AXIS Capital Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AXIS Capital preferred stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AXIS Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AXIS Capital preferred stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AXIS Capital Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

AXIS Capital Risk Indicators

The analysis of AXIS Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AXIS Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting axis preferred stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for AXIS Capital

The number of cover stories for AXIS Capital depends on current market conditions and AXIS Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AXIS Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AXIS Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Other Information on Investing in AXIS Preferred Stock

AXIS Capital financial ratios help investors to determine whether AXIS Preferred Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AXIS with respect to the benefits of owning AXIS Capital security.