Assured Guaranty Stock Price Patterns
| AGO Stock | USD 86.58 0.09 0.10% |
Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.31) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.5872 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.3168 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.245 | Wall Street Target Price 107 |
Using Assured Guaranty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Assured Guaranty from the perspective of Assured Guaranty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Assured Guaranty using Assured Guaranty's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Assured using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Assured Guaranty's stock price.
Assured Guaranty Short Interest
An investor who is long Assured Guaranty may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Assured Guaranty and may potentially protect profits, hedge Assured Guaranty with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 85.2361 | Short Percent 0.0416 | Short Ratio 3.56 | Shares Short Prior Month 948.7 K | 50 Day MA 88.1126 |
Assured Guaranty Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Assured Guaranty's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Assured. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Assured can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Assured Guaranty. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Assured Guaranty's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Assured Guaranty.
Assured Guaranty Implied Volatility | 0.5 |
Assured Guaranty's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Assured Guaranty stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Assured Guaranty's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Assured Guaranty stock will not fluctuate a lot when Assured Guaranty's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Assured Guaranty to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Assured because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Assured Guaranty after-hype prediction price | USD 86.67 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Assured contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Assured Guaranty will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0313% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Assured Guaranty trading at USD 86.58, that is roughly USD 0.0271 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Assured Guaranty's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Assured Guaranty options at the current volatility level of 0.5%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Assured Guaranty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Assured Guaranty After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Assured Guaranty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Assured Guaranty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Assured Guaranty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Assured Guaranty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Assured Guaranty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Assured Guaranty's historical news coverage. Assured Guaranty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 85.58 and 87.76, respectively. We have considered Assured Guaranty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Assured Guaranty is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Assured Guaranty is based on 3 months time horizon.
Assured Guaranty Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Assured Guaranty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Assured Guaranty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Assured Guaranty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
86.58 | 86.67 | 0.00 |
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Assured Guaranty Hype Timeline
On the 12th of February 2026 Assured Guaranty is traded for 86.58. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Assured is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Assured Guaranty is about 595.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 86.58. About 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.71. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Assured Guaranty has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.52. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.17. The firm last dividend was issued on the 19th of November 2025. Assured Guaranty had 1:5 split on the December 3, 2010. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Assured Guaranty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Assured Guaranty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Assured Guaranty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Assured Guaranty's future price movements. Getting to know how Assured Guaranty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Assured Guaranty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RDN | Radian Group | (0.25) | 9 per month | 1.66 | (0.04) | 2.85 | (2.41) | 10.62 | |
| CNO | CNO Financial Group | 0.10 | 8 per month | 1.30 | 0.01 | 2.09 | (1.93) | 9.83 | |
| FG | FG Annuities Life | 0.18 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.09 | (4.09) | 12.87 | |
| FHI | Federated Investors B | (0.32) | 8 per month | 1.27 | 0.04 | 1.96 | (2.28) | 5.14 | |
| GBDC | Golub Capital BDC | (0.15) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.69 | (1.82) | 7.65 | |
| NMIH | NMI Holdings | (0.70) | 9 per month | 1.67 | 0.06 | 2.43 | (2.55) | 12.17 | |
| TCBI | Texas Capital Bancshares | 1.90 | 9 per month | 1.26 | 0.12 | 3.42 | (1.64) | 10.21 | |
| ATH | Athene Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| WBS | Webster Financial | 0.41 | 11 per month | 0.93 | 0.17 | 3.30 | (1.78) | 9.34 | |
| UCB | United Community Banks | 0.66 | 9 per month | 1.12 | 0.12 | 2.80 | (1.45) | 8.46 |
Assured Guaranty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Assured price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Assured using various technical indicators. When you analyze Assured charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Assured Guaranty Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Assured Guaranty stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Assured Guaranty, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Assured Guaranty based on analysis of Assured Guaranty hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Assured Guaranty's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Assured Guaranty's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0153 | 0.0142 | 0.0128 | 0.0118 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.31 | 5.89 | 5.3 | 2.78 |
Pair Trading with Assured Guaranty
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Assured Guaranty position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Assured Guaranty will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Assured Stock
Moving against Assured Stock
| 0.4 | KFS | Kingsway Financial Potential Growth | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Assured Guaranty could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Assured Guaranty when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Assured Guaranty - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Assured Guaranty to buy it.
The correlation of Assured Guaranty is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Assured Guaranty moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Assured Guaranty moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Assured Guaranty can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Assured Guaranty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Assured Stock, please use our How to Invest in Assured Guaranty guide.You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Will Property & Casualty Insurance sector continue expanding? Could Assured diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Assured Guaranty. If investors know Assured will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Assured Guaranty data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.31) | Dividend Share 1.33 | Earnings Share 8.17 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.104 |
Investors evaluate Assured Guaranty using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Assured Guaranty's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Assured Guaranty's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Assured Guaranty's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Assured Guaranty represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Assured Guaranty's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.