Axsome Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AXSM Stock | USD 184.52 1.44 0.77% |
Axsome Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Axsome Therapeutics' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Axsome Therapeutics' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Axsome Therapeutics fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Axsome Therapeutics' stock price is about 65. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Axsome, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.66) | EPS Estimate Current Year (3.82) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.4396 | Wall Street Target Price 210.191 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.90) |
Using Axsome Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Axsome Therapeutics from the perspective of Axsome Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Axsome Therapeutics using Axsome Therapeutics' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Axsome using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Axsome Therapeutics' stock price.
Axsome Therapeutics Short Interest
An investor who is long Axsome Therapeutics may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Axsome Therapeutics and may potentially protect profits, hedge Axsome Therapeutics with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 124.1915 | Short Percent 0.0643 | Short Ratio 4.49 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.8 M | 50 Day MA 157.251 |
Axsome Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Axsome Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 184.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 167.43.Axsome Therapeutics Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Axsome Therapeutics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Axsome. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Axsome can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Axsome Therapeutics. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Axsome Therapeutics' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Axsome Therapeutics.
Axsome Therapeutics Implied Volatility | 0.29 |
Axsome Therapeutics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Axsome Therapeutics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Axsome Therapeutics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Axsome Therapeutics stock will not fluctuate a lot when Axsome Therapeutics' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Axsome Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 184.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 167.43. Axsome Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 186.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Axsome Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Axsome contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Axsome Therapeutics will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0181% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Axsome Therapeutics trading at USD 184.52, that is roughly USD 0.0334 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Axsome Therapeutics' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Axsome Therapeutics options at the current volatility level of 0.29%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Axsome Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Axsome Therapeutics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Axsome Therapeutics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Axsome Therapeutics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Axsome Therapeutics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Axsome Therapeutics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Axsome Therapeutics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Axsome. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Axsome Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Axsome price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Axsome using various technical indicators. When you analyze Axsome charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Axsome Therapeutics Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Axsome Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 184.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.79, mean absolute percentage error of 27.72, and the sum of the absolute errors of 167.43.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Axsome Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Axsome Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Axsome Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Axsome Therapeutics | Axsome Therapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Axsome Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Axsome Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Axsome Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 181.11 and 188.05, respectively. We have considered Axsome Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Axsome Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Axsome Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.5947 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.0577 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.7905 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0173 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 167.4324 |
Predictive Modules for Axsome Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Axsome Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Axsome Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Axsome Therapeutics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Axsome Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Axsome Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Axsome Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Axsome Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Axsome Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Axsome Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Axsome Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 182.86 and 189.80, respectively. We have considered Axsome Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Axsome Therapeutics is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Axsome Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Axsome Therapeutics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Axsome Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Axsome Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Axsome Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.59 | 3.47 | 1.81 | 0.58 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
184.52 | 186.33 | 0.98 |
|
Axsome Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Axsome Therapeutics is presently traded for 184.52. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.81, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.58. Axsome is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 186.33 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 113.03%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.98%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.59%. The volatility of related hype on Axsome Therapeutics is about 353.72%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 183.94. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 385.69 M. Net Loss for the year was (287.22 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 515.6 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Axsome Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.Axsome Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Axsome Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Axsome Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Axsome Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Axsome Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NUVL | Nuvalent | (2.37) | 8 per month | 2.73 | 0.03 | 4.63 | (4.96) | 17.52 | |
| MTSR | Metsera Common Stock | (2.37) | 29 per month | 2.40 | 0.17 | 14.25 | (4.09) | 75.60 | |
| MRUS | Merus BV | 0.15 | 7 per month | 0.60 | 0.09 | 0.51 | (0.23) | 36.44 | |
| ABVX | Abivax SA American | (2.80) | 8 per month | 3.31 | 0.1 | 6.94 | (6.09) | 29.38 | |
| CYTK | Cytokinetics | 0.16 | 9 per month | 2.32 | 0.03 | 4.59 | (3.85) | 10.86 | |
| RYTM | Rhythm Pharmaceuticals | (0.36) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.03 | (5.14) | 18.69 | |
| ARWR | Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals | (2.32) | 9 per month | 2.88 | 0.18 | 10.85 | (5.77) | 32.02 | |
| CRSP | Crispr Therapeutics AG | 0.49 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.31 | (5.47) | 19.81 | |
| PCVX | Vaxcyte | (0.21) | 8 per month | 2.25 | 0.10 | 6.38 | (3.42) | 15.14 | |
| JAZZ | Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC | (0.18) | 9 per month | 1.68 | 0.08 | 3.66 | (3.14) | 25.96 |
Other Forecasting Options for Axsome Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Axsome, whether a beginner or expert, Axsome Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Axsome Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Axsome. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Axsome Therapeutics' price trends.Axsome Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Axsome Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Axsome Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Axsome Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Axsome Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Axsome Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Axsome Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Axsome Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Axsome Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 184.52 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 184.52 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.72) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.44) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 65.66 |
Axsome Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Axsome Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Axsome Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting axsome stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.39 | |||
| Variance | 11.5 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.6 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.54 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.56) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Axsome Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Axsome Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Axsome Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Axsome Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Axsome Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Axsome Therapeutics Short Properties
Axsome Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Axsome Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Axsome Therapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Axsome Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Axsome Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 315.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Axsome Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Axsome Stock, please use our How to Invest in Axsome Therapeutics guide.You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Axsome Therapeutics. If investors know Axsome will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Axsome Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (4.67) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.632 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Axsome Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Axsome that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Axsome Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Axsome Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Axsome Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Axsome Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Axsome Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Axsome Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Axsome Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.