Axsome Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AXSM Stock | USD 98.19 3.59 3.79% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Axsome Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 98.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 98.86. Axsome Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Axsome Therapeutics' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Axsome Therapeutics' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Axsome Therapeutics fundamentals over time.
Axsome |
Axsome Therapeutics Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Axsome Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 98.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.65, mean absolute percentage error of 5.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 98.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Axsome Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Axsome Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Axsome Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
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Axsome Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Axsome Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Axsome Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 95.71 and 100.67, respectively. We have considered Axsome Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Axsome Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Axsome Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.9476 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1513 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.6477 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0179 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 98.86 |
Predictive Modules for Axsome Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Axsome Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Axsome Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Axsome Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Axsome, whether a beginner or expert, Axsome Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Axsome Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Axsome. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Axsome Therapeutics' price trends.View Axsome Therapeutics Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Axsome Therapeutics Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Axsome Therapeutics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Axsome Therapeutics' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Axsome Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Axsome Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Axsome Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Axsome Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Axsome Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Axsome Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Axsome Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Axsome Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting axsome stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.45 | |||
| Variance | 5.99 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.08 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.52 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.10) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Axsome Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Axsome Stock, please use our How to Invest in Axsome Therapeutics guide.You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Axsome Therapeutics. If investors know Axsome will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Axsome Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (6.58) | Revenue Per Share 7.108 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.813 | Return On Assets (0.26) | Return On Equity (1.72) |
The market value of Axsome Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Axsome that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Axsome Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Axsome Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Axsome Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Axsome Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Axsome Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Axsome Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Axsome Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.