Axalta Coating Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| AXTA Stock | USD 34.13 0.66 1.97% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Axalta Coating Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 33.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.15. Axalta Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Axalta Coating stock prices and determine the direction of Axalta Coating Systems's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Axalta Coating's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of Axalta Coating's stock price is about 66. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Axalta, making its price go up or down. Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Axalta Coating hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Axalta Coating Systems from the perspective of Axalta Coating response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Axalta Coating Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 33.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.15. Axalta Coating after-hype prediction price | USD 34.13 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Axalta Coating to cross-verify your projections. Axalta Coating Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Axalta price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Axalta using various technical indicators. When you analyze Axalta charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Axalta Coating Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Axalta Coating Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 33.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59, mean absolute percentage error of 0.67, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Axalta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Axalta Coating's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Axalta Coating Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Axalta Coating | Axalta Coating Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Axalta Coating Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Axalta Coating's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Axalta Coating's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 32.07 and 35.34, respectively. We have considered Axalta Coating's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Axalta Coating stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Axalta Coating stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.707 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5926 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0199 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.147 |
Predictive Modules for Axalta Coating
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Axalta Coating Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Axalta Coating's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Axalta Coating After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Axalta Coating at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Axalta Coating or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Axalta Coating, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Axalta Coating Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Axalta Coating's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Axalta Coating's historical news coverage. Axalta Coating's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 32.50 and 35.76, respectively. We have considered Axalta Coating's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Axalta Coating is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Axalta Coating Systems is based on 3 months time horizon.
Axalta Coating Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Axalta Coating is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Axalta Coating backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Axalta Coating, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 1.63 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
34.13 | 34.13 | 0.00 |
|
Axalta Coating Hype Timeline
Axalta Coating Systems is presently traded for 34.13. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Axalta is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.28%. %. The volatility of related hype on Axalta Coating is about 5433.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 34.14. About 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Axalta Coating was presently reported as 10.68. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.02. Axalta Coating Systems had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Axalta Coating to cross-verify your projections.Axalta Coating Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Axalta Coating's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Axalta Coating's future price movements. Getting to know how Axalta Coating's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Axalta Coating may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EMN | Eastman Chemical | 0.15 | 8 per month | 1.83 | 0.05 | 4.94 | (3.60) | 9.74 | |
| ESI | Element Solutions | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.73 | 0.04 | 3.96 | (3.60) | 10.60 | |
| NEU | NewMarket | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.25 | (2.77) | 11.14 | |
| LPX | Louisiana Pacific | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.45 | (0.03) | 4.15 | (2.57) | 11.96 | |
| BCPC | Balchem | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.92 | 0.02 | 3.26 | (1.53) | 7.13 | |
| BVN | Compania de Minas | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.65 | 0.29 | 4.32 | (3.76) | 11.22 | |
| HBM | Hudbay Minerals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.19 | 0.21 | 5.44 | (4.01) | 12.33 | |
| SSL | Sasol | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.22 | 0.02 | 4.59 | (4.06) | 18.92 | |
| EXP | Eagle Materials | 0.15 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.89 | (2.74) | 9.20 | |
| UFPI | Ufp Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.08 | 0.1 | 3.46 | (2.12) | 7.57 |
Other Forecasting Options for Axalta Coating
For every potential investor in Axalta, whether a beginner or expert, Axalta Coating's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Axalta Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Axalta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Axalta Coating's price trends.Axalta Coating Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Axalta Coating stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Axalta Coating could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Axalta Coating by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Axalta Coating Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Axalta Coating stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Axalta Coating shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Axalta Coating stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Axalta Coating Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 29805.12 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.466667 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 33.98 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 34.03 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.49 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.66 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 66.27 |
Axalta Coating Risk Indicators
The analysis of Axalta Coating's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Axalta Coating's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting axalta stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Variance | 2.67 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.13 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.28 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Axalta Coating
The number of cover stories for Axalta Coating depends on current market conditions and Axalta Coating's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Axalta Coating is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Axalta Coating's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Axalta Coating Short Properties
Axalta Coating's future price predictability will typically decrease when Axalta Coating's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Axalta Coating Systems often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Axalta Coating's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Axalta Coating's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 220.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 593 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Axalta Coating to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Axalta Coating. If investors know Axalta will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Axalta Coating listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Axalta Coating Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Axalta that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Axalta Coating's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Axalta Coating's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Axalta Coating's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Axalta Coating's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Axalta Coating's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Axalta Coating is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Axalta Coating's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.