Booz Allen Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| BAH Stock | USD 89.56 4.37 4.65% |
Booz Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Booz Allen's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 28th of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Booz Allen's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Booz Allen hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Booz Allen Hamilton from the perspective of Booz Allen response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Booz Allen Hamilton on the next trading day is expected to be 89.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.28. Booz Allen after-hype prediction price | USD 89.52 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Booz Allen to cross-verify your projections. Booz Allen Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Booz price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Booz using various technical indicators. When you analyze Booz charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Booz Allen Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Booz Allen Hamilton on the next trading day is expected to be 89.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.59, mean absolute percentage error of 5.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.28.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Booz Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Booz Allen's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Booz Allen Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Booz Allen | Booz Allen Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Booz Allen Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Booz Allen's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Booz Allen's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 86.92 and 92.18, respectively. We have considered Booz Allen's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Booz Allen stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Booz Allen stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1313 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.588 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0177 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 95.28 |
Predictive Modules for Booz Allen
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Booz Allen Hamilton. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Booz Allen After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Booz Allen at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Booz Allen or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Booz Allen, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Booz Allen Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Booz Allen's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Booz Allen's historical news coverage. Booz Allen's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 86.92 and 92.12, respectively. We have considered Booz Allen's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Booz Allen is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Booz Allen Hamilton is based on 3 months time horizon.
Booz Allen Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Booz Allen is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Booz Allen backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Booz Allen, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 2.63 | 0.04 | 0.24 | 6 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
89.56 | 89.52 | 0.04 |
|
Booz Allen Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January Booz Allen Hamilton is traded for 89.56. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.24. Booz is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 89.52. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Booz Allen is about 198.94%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 89.80. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.29. Booz Allen Hamilton recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.74. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of November 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Booz Allen to cross-verify your projections.Booz Allen Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Booz Allen's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Booz Allen's future price movements. Getting to know how Booz Allen's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Booz Allen may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PAC | Grupo Aeroportuario del | (0.24) | 4 per month | 1.04 | 0.22 | 2.70 | (2.00) | 9.22 | |
| OC | Owens Corning | (0.09) | 22 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.03 | (2.95) | 11.49 | |
| WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems | 1.96 | 27 per month | 1.25 | 0.05 | 3.31 | (2.33) | 11.59 | |
| SWK | Stanley Black Decker | 0.75 | 22 per month | 1.50 | 0.09 | 4.60 | (2.67) | 10.50 | |
| ARMK | Aramark Holdings | 5.64 | 31 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.78 | (2.33) | 6.45 | |
| ASR | Grupo Aeroportuario del | (1.08) | 9 per month | 0.80 | 0.15 | 2.48 | (1.51) | 6.46 | |
| CR | Crane Company | 2.75 | 10 per month | 2.38 | (0.02) | 2.36 | (2.32) | 6.88 | |
| CLH | Clean Harbors | 2.60 | 33 per month | 0.82 | 0.14 | 3.79 | (1.74) | 7.76 | |
| MLI | Mueller Industries | 0.94 | 4 per month | 0.82 | 0.27 | 2.06 | (1.65) | 4.16 | |
| AYI | Acuity Brands | (0.01) | 21 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.66 | (2.93) | 16.54 |
Other Forecasting Options for Booz Allen
For every potential investor in Booz, whether a beginner or expert, Booz Allen's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Booz Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Booz. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Booz Allen's price trends.Booz Allen Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Booz Allen stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Booz Allen could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Booz Allen by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Booz Allen Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Booz Allen stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Booz Allen shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Booz Allen stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Booz Allen Hamilton entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 243187.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.80) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 92.14 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 91.28 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (4.77) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (4.37) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 49.65 |
Booz Allen Risk Indicators
The analysis of Booz Allen's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Booz Allen's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting booz stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.6 | |||
| Variance | 6.78 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.43 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.84 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.95) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Booz Allen
The number of cover stories for Booz Allen depends on current market conditions and Booz Allen's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Booz Allen is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Booz Allen's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Booz Allen Short Properties
Booz Allen's future price predictability will typically decrease when Booz Allen's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Booz Allen Hamilton often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Booz Allen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Booz Allen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 128.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 885 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Booz Allen to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Is IT Consulting & Other Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Booz Allen. If investors know Booz will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Booz Allen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Booz Allen Hamilton is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Booz that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Booz Allen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Booz Allen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Booz Allen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Booz Allen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Booz Allen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Booz Allen is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Booz Allen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.