Ball Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BALL Stock | USD 57.37 1.08 1.92% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ball Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 57.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.48. Ball Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Ball's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ball's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ball fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Ball's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.811 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.909 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.5667 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.9733 | Wall Street Target Price 62.6923 |
Using Ball hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ball Corporation from the perspective of Ball response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ball using Ball's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ball using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ball's stock price.
Ball Short Interest
An investor who is long Ball may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ball and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ball with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 52.0426 | Short Percent 0.0267 | Short Ratio 2.43 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.7 M | 50 Day MA 51.0706 |
Ball Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ball's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ball. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ball can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ball Corporation. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Ball Implied Volatility | 0.37 |
Ball's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ball Corporation stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ball's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ball stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ball's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ball Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 57.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.48. Ball after-hype prediction price | USD 56.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ball to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ball contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ball Corporation will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0231% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Ball trading at USD 57.37, that is roughly USD 0.0133 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ball's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ball Corporation options at the current volatility level of 0.37%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Ball Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ball's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ball's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ball stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ball's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ball's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ball is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ball. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Ball Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ball price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ball using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ball charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ball Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ball Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 57.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59, mean absolute percentage error of 0.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.48.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ball Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ball's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ball Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ball | Ball Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ball Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ball's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ball's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 55.82 and 58.92, respectively. We have considered Ball's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ball stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ball stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7811 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1287 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5913 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0118 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 35.48 |
Predictive Modules for Ball
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ball. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ball After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ball at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ball or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ball, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ball Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ball's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ball's historical news coverage. Ball's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 55.18 and 58.28, respectively. We have considered Ball's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ball is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ball is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ball Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ball is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ball backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ball, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 1.55 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 12 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
57.37 | 56.73 | 0.04 |
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Ball Hype Timeline
Ball is currently traded for 57.37. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Ball is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 56.73 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.23%. The volatility of related hype on Ball is about 1359.65%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 57.40. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 11.79 B. Net Income was 4.01 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.52 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ball to cross-verify your projections.Ball Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ball's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ball's future price movements. Getting to know how Ball's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ball may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CCK | Crown Holdings | (3.69) | 11 per month | 1.50 | 0.03 | 2.73 | (2.36) | 9.29 | |
| SN | SharkNinja | (2.28) | 10 per month | 2.28 | 0.13 | 5.93 | (3.37) | 14.41 | |
| WYNN | Wynn Resorts Limited | 1.27 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.43 | (3.45) | 10.09 | |
| HTHT | Huazhu Group | 0.73 | 10 per month | 1.20 | 0.18 | 2.60 | (2.65) | 11.58 | |
| TOL | Toll Brothers | 2.06 | 9 per month | 1.26 | 0.02 | 4.26 | (2.61) | 10.06 | |
| H | Hyatt Hotels | 4.43 | 11 per month | 1.53 | 0.05 | 4.14 | (2.86) | 10.45 | |
| DPZ | Dominos Pizza Common | (0.74) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.68 | (2.15) | 6.97 | |
| AMCR | Amcor PLC | 0.20 | 11 per month | 1.77 | 0 | 2.00 | (1.88) | 10.51 | |
| SCI | Service International | (0.11) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 1.77 | (1.61) | 7.10 | |
| DECK | Deckers Outdoor | (0.73) | 7 per month | 3.32 | (0.01) | 4.06 | (3.52) | 17.98 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ball
For every potential investor in Ball, whether a beginner or expert, Ball's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ball Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ball. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ball's price trends.Ball Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ball stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ball could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ball by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ball Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ball stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ball shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ball stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ball Corporation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ball Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ball's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ball's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ball stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.5 | |||
| Variance | 2.26 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.92 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.82 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.06) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ball
The number of cover stories for Ball depends on current market conditions and Ball's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ball is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ball's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ball Short Properties
Ball's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ball's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ball Corporation often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ball's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ball's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 308.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 893 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ball to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Is Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ball. If investors know Ball will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ball listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.811 | Dividend Share 0.8 | Earnings Share 2.57 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.096 |
The market value of Ball is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ball that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ball's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ball's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ball's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ball's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ball's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ball is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ball's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.