Grayscale Bitcoin Etf Forward View - Simple Moving Average

BCOR Etf  USD 22.79  0.21  0.93%   
Grayscale Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the relative strength momentum indicator of Grayscale Bitcoin's share price is approaching 34 suggesting that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Grayscale Bitcoin, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 34

 Sell Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Grayscale Bitcoin's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Grayscale Bitcoin and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Grayscale Bitcoin's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Grayscale Bitcoin Adopters, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Grayscale Bitcoin hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Grayscale Bitcoin Adopters from the perspective of Grayscale Bitcoin response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Grayscale Bitcoin Adopters on the next trading day is expected to be 22.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.70.

Grayscale Bitcoin after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 22.73  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grayscale Bitcoin to cross-verify your projections.

Grayscale Bitcoin Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Grayscale price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Grayscale using various technical indicators. When you analyze Grayscale charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A two period moving average forecast for Grayscale Bitcoin is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Grayscale Bitcoin Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 22nd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Grayscale Bitcoin Adopters on the next trading day is expected to be 22.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61, mean absolute percentage error of 0.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Grayscale Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Grayscale Bitcoin's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Grayscale Bitcoin Etf Forecast Pattern

Backtest Grayscale Bitcoin  Grayscale Bitcoin Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Grayscale Bitcoin Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Grayscale Bitcoin's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Grayscale Bitcoin's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.87 and 25.71, respectively. We have considered Grayscale Bitcoin's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
22.79
22.79
Expected Value
25.71
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Grayscale Bitcoin etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Grayscale Bitcoin etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.962
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0684
MADMean absolute deviation0.6052
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0238
SAESum of the absolute errors35.705
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Grayscale Bitcoin Adopters price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Grayscale Bitcoin. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Grayscale Bitcoin

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grayscale Bitcoin. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19.8122.7325.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.4022.3225.24
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
14.0422.9331.82
Details

Grayscale Bitcoin After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Grayscale Bitcoin at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Grayscale Bitcoin or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Grayscale Bitcoin, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Grayscale Bitcoin Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Grayscale Bitcoin's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Grayscale Bitcoin's historical news coverage. Grayscale Bitcoin's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.81 and 25.65, respectively. We have considered Grayscale Bitcoin's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
22.79
22.73
After-hype Price
25.65
Upside
Grayscale Bitcoin is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Grayscale Bitcoin is based on 3 months time horizon.

Grayscale Bitcoin Etf Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Grayscale Bitcoin is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Grayscale Bitcoin backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Grayscale Bitcoin, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.17 
2.92
  0.06 
  0.16 
1 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
22.79
22.73
0.26 
768.42  
Notes

Grayscale Bitcoin Hype Timeline

Grayscale Bitcoin is currently traded for 22.79. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.16. Grayscale is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 22.73. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.26%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Grayscale Bitcoin is about 302.59%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 22.95. About 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Grayscale Bitcoin was currently reported as 7.78. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.58. Grayscale Bitcoin last dividend was issued on the 9th of January 2008. The entity had 1:10 split on the 13th of September 2002. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grayscale Bitcoin to cross-verify your projections.

Grayscale Bitcoin Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Grayscale Bitcoin's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Grayscale Bitcoin's future price movements. Getting to know how Grayscale Bitcoin's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Grayscale Bitcoin may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
VTWAXVanguard Total World 0.05 16 per month 0.59  0.04  1.06 (1.21) 3.46 
VFWAXVanguard Ftse All World 0.00 0 per month 0.47  0.16  1.36 (1.15) 3.18 
VEUVanguard FTSE All World(0.08)5 per month 0.53  0.15  1.27 (1.24) 3.30 
VVVanguard Large Cap Index(0.14)8 per month 0.72 (0.06) 0.94 (1.26) 3.67 
VLCAXVanguard Large Cap Index 3.70 15 per month 0.73 (0.06) 0.93 (1.27) 3.68 
RSPInvesco SP 500(1.08)7 per month 0.47  0.08  1.42 (1.22) 3.45 
VYMVanguard High Dividend 1.46 8 per month 0.45  0.11  1.21 (1.13) 3.51 
VHYAXVanguard High Dividend 0.05 23 per month 0.44  0.12  1.18 (1.17) 3.50 
SCHDSchwab Dividend Equity 0.41 7 per month 0.00  0.21  1.67 (0.86) 2.87 
IWMiShares Russell 2000 5.28 11 per month 0.89  0.08  1.98 (1.85) 5.63 

Other Forecasting Options for Grayscale Bitcoin

For every potential investor in Grayscale, whether a beginner or expert, Grayscale Bitcoin's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Grayscale Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Grayscale. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Grayscale Bitcoin's price trends.

Grayscale Bitcoin Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Grayscale Bitcoin etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Grayscale Bitcoin could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Grayscale Bitcoin by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Grayscale Bitcoin Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Grayscale Bitcoin etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Grayscale Bitcoin shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Grayscale Bitcoin etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Grayscale Bitcoin Adopters entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Grayscale Bitcoin Risk Indicators

The analysis of Grayscale Bitcoin's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Grayscale Bitcoin's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting grayscale etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Grayscale Bitcoin

The number of cover stories for Grayscale Bitcoin depends on current market conditions and Grayscale Bitcoin's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Grayscale Bitcoin is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Grayscale Bitcoin's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
When determining whether Grayscale Bitcoin is a strong investment it is important to analyze Grayscale Bitcoin's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Grayscale Bitcoin's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Grayscale Etf, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grayscale Bitcoin to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Investors evaluate Grayscale Bitcoin using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Grayscale Bitcoin's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Grayscale Bitcoin's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Grayscale Bitcoin's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Grayscale Bitcoin should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Grayscale Bitcoin's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.