Belden Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BDC Stock | USD 115.26 2.96 2.50% |
Belden Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Belden stock prices and determine the direction of Belden Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Belden's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Belden's share price is approaching 46 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Belden, making its price go up or down. Momentum 46
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.085 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.9263 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.4212 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.7926 | Wall Street Target Price 144.4 |
Using Belden hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Belden Inc from the perspective of Belden response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Belden using Belden's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Belden using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Belden's stock price.
Belden Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Belden's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Belden. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Belden stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 116.584 | Short Percent 0.0369 | Short Ratio 3.16 | Shares Short Prior Month 764.2 K | 50 Day MA 116.6154 |
Belden Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Belden Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 119.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 160.77.Belden Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Belden's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Belden. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Belden can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Belden Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Belden's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Belden.
Belden Implied Volatility | 0.52 |
Belden's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Belden Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Belden's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Belden stock will not fluctuate a lot when Belden's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Belden Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 119.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 160.77. Belden after-hype prediction price | USD 115.26 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Belden to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Belden contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Belden Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0325% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Belden trading at USD 115.26, that is roughly USD 0.0375 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Belden's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Belden Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.52%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Belden Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Belden's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Belden's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Belden stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Belden's open interest, investors have to compare it to Belden's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Belden is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Belden. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Belden Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Belden price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Belden using various technical indicators. When you analyze Belden charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Belden Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Belden's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1993-09-30 | Previous Quarter 301.5 M | Current Value 314.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 220.2 M |
Belden Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Belden Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 119.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.64, mean absolute percentage error of 9.73, and the sum of the absolute errors of 160.77.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Belden Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Belden's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Belden Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Belden | Belden Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Belden Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Belden's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Belden's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 117.64 and 121.44, respectively. We have considered Belden's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Belden stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Belden stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.3854 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.6356 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0225 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 160.7726 |
Predictive Modules for Belden
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Belden Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Belden's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Belden After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Belden at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Belden or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Belden, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Belden Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Belden's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Belden's historical news coverage. Belden's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 113.37 and 117.15, respectively. We have considered Belden's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Belden is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Belden Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Belden Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Belden is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Belden backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Belden, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.90 | 0.08 | 0.52 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
115.26 | 115.26 | 0.00 |
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Belden Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January Belden Inc is traded for 115.26. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.52. Belden is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 46.68%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Belden is about 7.36%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 114.74. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Belden was currently reported as 31.61. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.99. Belden Inc recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.62. The entity last dividend was issued on the 11th of December 2025. The firm had 1:2 split on the 16th of July 2004. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Belden to cross-verify your projections.Belden Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Belden's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Belden's future price movements. Getting to know how Belden's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Belden may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| COMM | COMM Old | 0.21 | 2 per month | 2.44 | 0.12 | 4.14 | (4.01) | 15.17 | |
| VSAT | ViaSat Inc | (5.04) | 9 per month | 4.94 | 0.06 | 8.01 | (7.49) | 26.09 | |
| ITRI | Itron Inc | 0.01 | 21 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.51 | (4.16) | 24.28 | |
| OSIS | OSI Systems | (250.60) | 7 per month | 2.35 | 0.03 | 4.86 | (3.74) | 20.11 | |
| BOX | Box Inc | 0.10 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.76 | (3.61) | 11.36 | |
| CLSK | CleanSpark | 0.30 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 12.27 | (8.72) | 33.02 | |
| QLYS | Qualys Inc | (1.59) | 11 per month | 1.88 | (0.01) | 2.52 | (3.12) | 25.56 | |
| ACIW | ACI Worldwide | (0.38) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.08 | (3.30) | 9.43 | |
| WEX | Wex Inc | (1.72) | 9 per month | 1.65 | 0 | 3.31 | (2.82) | 8.14 | |
| VIAV | Viavi Solutions | 0.71 | 11 per month | 2.24 | 0.14 | 4.69 | (4.45) | 30.34 |
Other Forecasting Options for Belden
For every potential investor in Belden, whether a beginner or expert, Belden's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Belden Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Belden. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Belden's price trends.Belden Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Belden stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Belden could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Belden by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Belden Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Belden stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Belden shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Belden stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Belden Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Belden Risk Indicators
The analysis of Belden's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Belden's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting belden stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.31 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Variance | 3.44 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.2 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.09 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.41) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Belden
The number of cover stories for Belden depends on current market conditions and Belden's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Belden is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Belden's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Belden Short Properties
Belden's future price predictability will typically decrease when Belden's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Belden Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Belden's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Belden's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 370.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Belden to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Is Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Belden. If investors know Belden will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Belden listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.085 | Dividend Share 0.2 | Earnings Share 5.62 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.066 |
The market value of Belden Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Belden that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Belden's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Belden's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Belden's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Belden's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Belden's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Belden is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Belden's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.