Beacon Roofing Stock Forward View
| BECNDelisted Stock | USD 124.17 0.05 0.04% |
Beacon Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The value of RSI of Beacon Roofing's share price is at 58 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Beacon Roofing, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Beacon Roofing hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Beacon Roofing Supply from the perspective of Beacon Roofing response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Beacon Roofing Supply on the next trading day is expected to be 128.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.18. Beacon Roofing after-hype prediction price | USD 124.17 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Beacon |
Beacon Roofing Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Beacon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Beacon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Beacon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Beacon Roofing Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Beacon Roofing Supply on the next trading day is expected to be 128.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18, mean absolute percentage error of 2.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.18.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Beacon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Beacon Roofing's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Beacon Roofing Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Beacon Roofing | Beacon Roofing Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Beacon Roofing stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Beacon Roofing stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9906 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1832 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0099 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 72.1754 |
Predictive Modules for Beacon Roofing
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Beacon Roofing Supply. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Beacon Roofing's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Beacon Roofing After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Beacon Roofing at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Beacon Roofing or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Beacon Roofing, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Beacon Roofing Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Beacon Roofing's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Beacon Roofing's historical news coverage. Beacon Roofing's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 124.17 and 124.17, respectively. We have considered Beacon Roofing's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Beacon Roofing is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Beacon Roofing Supply is based on 3 months time horizon.
Beacon Roofing Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Beacon Roofing is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Beacon Roofing backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Beacon Roofing, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 15 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 15 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
124.17 | 124.17 | 0.00 |
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Beacon Roofing Hype Timeline
Beacon Roofing Supply is currently traded for 124.17. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Beacon is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Beacon Roofing is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 124.17. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Beacon Roofing was currently reported as 31.45. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.65. Beacon Roofing Supply had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 3:2 split on the 13th of June 2006. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 15 days. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in unemployment.Beacon Roofing Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Beacon Roofing's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Beacon Roofing's future price movements. Getting to know how Beacon Roofing's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Beacon Roofing may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations | (0.84) | 9 per month | 1.77 | 0.03 | 5.20 | (2.91) | 10.57 | |
| AZEK | Azek Company | 20.29 | 11 per month | 1.41 | 0.07 | 2.63 | (2.43) | 11.69 | |
| GMS | GMS Inc | 0.01 | 6 per month | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1.43 | (1.23) | 25.00 | |
| DOOR | Masonite International Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| PGTI | PGT Innovations | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| IAA | IAA Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| AQUA | Evoqua Water Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| AEBI | Aebi Schmidt Holding | 0.25 | 4 per month | 2.06 | 0.09 | 4.24 | (2.86) | 9.69 | |
| RBC | RBC Bearings Incorporated | (0.42) | 9 per month | 0.82 | 0.18 | 3.01 | (1.75) | 8.53 | |
| WCC | WESCO International | 3.91 | 18 per month | 1.79 | 0.16 | 3.54 | (3.42) | 16.49 |
Beacon Roofing Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Beacon Roofing stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Beacon Roofing could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Beacon Roofing by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Beacon Roofing Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Beacon Roofing stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Beacon Roofing shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Beacon Roofing stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Beacon Roofing Supply entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Beacon Roofing Risk Indicators
The analysis of Beacon Roofing's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Beacon Roofing's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting beacon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6744 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6383 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Variance | 1.35 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.71 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4075 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.76) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Beacon Roofing
The number of cover stories for Beacon Roofing depends on current market conditions and Beacon Roofing's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Beacon Roofing is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Beacon Roofing's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Beacon Roofing Short Properties
Beacon Roofing's future price predictability will typically decrease when Beacon Roofing's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Beacon Roofing Supply often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Beacon Roofing's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Beacon Roofing's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 63.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 74.3 M |
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in unemployment. You can also try the Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.
Other Consideration for investing in Beacon Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Beacon Roofing Supply check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Beacon Roofing's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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