Berner Kantonalbank Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BEKN Stock | CHF 326.50 1.50 0.46% |
Berner Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Berner Kantonalbank's stock price is slightly above 64 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Berner, making its price go up or down. Momentum 64
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.058 | Wall Street Target Price 230 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.01 |
Using Berner Kantonalbank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Berner Kantonalbank AG from the perspective of Berner Kantonalbank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Berner Kantonalbank AG on the next trading day is expected to be 326.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 152.50. Berner Kantonalbank after-hype prediction price | CHF 326.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Berner |
Berner Kantonalbank Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Berner price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Berner using various technical indicators. When you analyze Berner charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Berner Kantonalbank Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Berner Kantonalbank AG on the next trading day is expected to be 326.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.50, mean absolute percentage error of 11.58, and the sum of the absolute errors of 152.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Berner Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Berner Kantonalbank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Berner Kantonalbank Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Berner Kantonalbank | Berner Kantonalbank Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Berner Kantonalbank Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Berner Kantonalbank's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Berner Kantonalbank's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 325.42 and 327.58, respectively. We have considered Berner Kantonalbank's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Berner Kantonalbank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Berner Kantonalbank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.5596 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.0574 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.5 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0082 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 152.5 |
Predictive Modules for Berner Kantonalbank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Berner Kantonalbank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Berner Kantonalbank After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Berner Kantonalbank at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Berner Kantonalbank or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Berner Kantonalbank, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Berner Kantonalbank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Berner Kantonalbank's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Berner Kantonalbank's historical news coverage. Berner Kantonalbank's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 325.43 and 327.57, respectively. We have considered Berner Kantonalbank's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Berner Kantonalbank is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Berner Kantonalbank is based on 3 months time horizon.
Berner Kantonalbank Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Berner Kantonalbank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Berner Kantonalbank backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Berner Kantonalbank, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 1.08 | 0.54 | 0.75 | 7 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
326.50 | 326.50 | 0.00 |
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Berner Kantonalbank Hype Timeline
Berner Kantonalbank is currently traded for 326.50on SIX Swiss Exchange of Switzerland. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.54, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.75. Berner is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 72.0%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.36%. %. The volatility of related hype on Berner Kantonalbank is about 51.55%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 325.75. About 52.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.8. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Berner Kantonalbank recorded earning per share (EPS) of 19.09. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of May 2025. The firm had 1013:990 split on the 5th of August 2008. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Berner Kantonalbank to cross-verify your projections.Berner Kantonalbank Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Berner Kantonalbank's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Berner Kantonalbank's future price movements. Getting to know how Berner Kantonalbank's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Berner Kantonalbank may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LLBN | Liechtensteinische Landesbank AG | (0.20) | 1 per month | 0.61 | 0.21 | 2.29 | (1.62) | 5.79 | |
| ZUGER | Zuger Kantonalbank | (20.00) | 6 per month | 0.08 | 0.15 | 1.10 | (0.68) | 2.75 | |
| CMBN | Cembra Money Bank | (0.05) | 1 per month | 1.05 | 0.06 | 1.99 | (1.54) | 7.10 | |
| VATN | Valiant Holding AG | (0.60) | 6 per month | 0.77 | 0.20 | 2.62 | (1.43) | 6.06 | |
| WKBN | Banque Cantonale du | (0.50) | 3 per month | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.78 | (0.39) | 1.94 | |
| SGKN | St Galler Kantonalbank | 2.00 | 4 per month | 0.50 | 0.23 | 1.35 | (0.87) | 5.87 | |
| BCGE | Banque Cantonale de | (0.40) | 6 per month | 0.42 | 0.17 | 1.86 | (1.21) | 4.38 | |
| CFT | Compagnie Financiere Tradition | (1.00) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.38 | (2.30) | 8.32 | |
| GRKP | Graubuendner Kantonalbank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1.12 | (0.56) | 3.16 | |
| LUKN | Luzerner Kantonalbank AG | (0.20) | 1 per month | 0.47 | 0.28 | 1.65 | (1.02) | 6.90 |
Other Forecasting Options for Berner Kantonalbank
For every potential investor in Berner, whether a beginner or expert, Berner Kantonalbank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Berner Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Berner. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Berner Kantonalbank's price trends.Berner Kantonalbank Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Berner Kantonalbank stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Berner Kantonalbank could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Berner Kantonalbank by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Berner Kantonalbank Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Berner Kantonalbank stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Berner Kantonalbank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Berner Kantonalbank stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Berner Kantonalbank AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Berner Kantonalbank Risk Indicators
The analysis of Berner Kantonalbank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Berner Kantonalbank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting berner stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.734 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5078 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Variance | 1.04 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.13 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2579 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.97) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Berner Kantonalbank
The number of cover stories for Berner Kantonalbank depends on current market conditions and Berner Kantonalbank's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Berner Kantonalbank is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Berner Kantonalbank's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Berner Kantonalbank Short Properties
Berner Kantonalbank's future price predictability will typically decrease when Berner Kantonalbank's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Berner Kantonalbank AG often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Berner Kantonalbank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Berner Kantonalbank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 9.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.7 B |
Additional Tools for Berner Stock Analysis
When running Berner Kantonalbank's price analysis, check to measure Berner Kantonalbank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Berner Kantonalbank is operating at the current time. Most of Berner Kantonalbank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Berner Kantonalbank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Berner Kantonalbank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Berner Kantonalbank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.