Build Funds Etf Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BFIX Etf | USD 25.61 0.01 0.04% |
Build Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of Build Funds' share price is below 20 suggesting that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Build Funds hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Build Funds Trust from the perspective of Build Funds response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Build Funds using Build Funds' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Build using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Build Funds' stock price.
Build Funds Implied Volatility | 0.31 |
Build Funds' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Build Funds Trust stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Build Funds' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Build Funds stock will not fluctuate a lot when Build Funds' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Build Funds Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 25.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.25. Build Funds after-hype prediction price | USD 25.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Build Funds to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Build contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Build Funds Trust will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0194% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Build Funds trading at USD 25.61, that is roughly USD 0.004962 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Build Funds' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Build Funds Trust options at the current volatility level of 0.31%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Build Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Build Funds' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Build Funds' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Build Funds stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Build Funds' open interest, investors have to compare it to Build Funds' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Build Funds is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Build. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Build Funds Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Build price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Build using various technical indicators. When you analyze Build charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Build Funds Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Build Funds Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 25.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.25.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Build Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Build Funds' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Build Funds Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Build Funds | Build Funds Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Build Funds Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Build Funds' Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Build Funds' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.41 and 25.81, respectively. We have considered Build Funds' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Build Funds etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Build Funds etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.2468 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0081 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0374 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0015 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.2469 |
Predictive Modules for Build Funds
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Build Funds Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Build Funds After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Build Funds at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Build Funds or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Build Funds, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Build Funds Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Build Funds' etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Build Funds' historical news coverage. Build Funds' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.40 and 25.80, respectively. We have considered Build Funds' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Build Funds is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Build Funds Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
Build Funds Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Build Funds is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Build Funds backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Build Funds, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 3 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
25.61 | 25.60 | 0.00 |
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Build Funds Hype Timeline
Build Funds Trust is currently traded for 25.61. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.02. Build is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Build Funds is about 30.35%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.63. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Build Funds to cross-verify your projections.Build Funds Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Build Funds' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Build Funds' future price movements. Getting to know how Build Funds' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Build Funds may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FIXP | Tidal ETF Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.37) | 0.25 | (0.15) | 0.75 | |
| LTTI | First Trust Exchange Traded | 0.01 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 0.68 | (0.89) | 2.20 | |
| SUPP | TCW Transform Supply | (0.21) | 17 per month | 1.17 | (0.03) | 1.62 | (2.34) | 4.69 | |
| RDTY | YieldMax R2000 0DTE | (0.38) | 2 per month | 1.07 | (0.02) | 1.63 | (1.71) | 4.16 | |
| CVRT | Calamos ETF Trust | (0.13) | 2 per month | 2.35 | 0.04 | 4.72 | (3.88) | 12.17 | |
| CPII | American Beacon Select | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.13 | (0.64) | 0.16 | (0.21) | 0.79 | |
| MULL | GraniteShares 2x Long | 7.04 | 3 per month | 7.29 | 0.18 | 18.09 | (13.38) | 40.17 | |
| NFLP | Kurv Yield Prm | 0.15 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 1.96 | (4.04) | 7.87 | |
| PBQQ | PGIM Laddered Nasdaq 100 | (0.03) | 2 per month | 0.44 | (0.16) | 0.77 | (0.84) | 2.16 | |
| NRSH | Tidal ETF Trust | 0.14 | 2 per month | 1.77 | (0.02) | 2.34 | (2.73) | 7.65 |
Other Forecasting Options for Build Funds
For every potential investor in Build, whether a beginner or expert, Build Funds' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Build Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Build. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Build Funds' price trends.Build Funds Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Build Funds etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Build Funds could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Build Funds by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Build Funds Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Build Funds etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Build Funds shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Build Funds etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Build Funds Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Build Funds Risk Indicators
The analysis of Build Funds' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Build Funds' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting build etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1575 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.0844 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2055 | |||
| Variance | 0.0422 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0382 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0071 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.18) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Build Funds
The number of cover stories for Build Funds depends on current market conditions and Build Funds' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Build Funds is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Build Funds' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Build Funds to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Build Funds Trust's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Build's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Build Funds' intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since Build Funds' trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Build Funds' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Build Funds should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Build Funds' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.