Qilian International Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BGM Stock | 1.22 0.26 17.57% |
Qilian Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Qilian International's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Qilian International's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Qilian International fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Qilian International's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.57) |
Using Qilian International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Qilian International Holding from the perspective of Qilian International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Qilian International Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 1.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.60. Qilian International after-hype prediction price | USD 0.92 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Qilian International to cross-verify your projections. Qilian International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Qilian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Qilian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Qilian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Qilian International Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Qilian International Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 1.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Qilian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Qilian International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Qilian International Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Qilian International | Qilian International Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Qilian International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Qilian International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Qilian International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 8.12, respectively. We have considered Qilian International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Qilian International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Qilian International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5584 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.139 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2066 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0519 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.6 |
Predictive Modules for Qilian International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Qilian International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Qilian International After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Qilian International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Qilian International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Qilian International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Qilian International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Qilian International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Qilian International's historical news coverage. Qilian International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.05 and 7.82, respectively. We have considered Qilian International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Qilian International is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Qilian International is based on 3 months time horizon.
Qilian International Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Qilian International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Qilian International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Qilian International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
3.02 | 6.90 | 1.63 | 1.22 | 5 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.22 | 0.92 | 24.88 |
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Qilian International Hype Timeline
On the 6th of February Qilian International is traded for 1.22. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.63, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.22. Qilian is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 0.92. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -24.88%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -3.02%. The volatility of related hype on Qilian International is about 1712.16%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.00. The book value of the company was currently reported as 1.85. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.17. Qilian International last dividend was issued on the 27th of February 2023. The entity had 1:5 split on the 21st of June 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Qilian International to cross-verify your projections.Qilian International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Qilian International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Qilian International's future price movements. Getting to know how Qilian International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Qilian International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ANIP | ANI Pharmaceuticals | (2.05) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.13 | (2.78) | 13.39 | |
| PAHC | Phibro Animal Health | (2.25) | 11 per month | 2.49 | 0.08 | 4.38 | (4.49) | 12.56 | |
| TWST | Twist Bioscience Corp | 0.76 | 8 per month | 2.94 | 0.14 | 7.70 | (4.95) | 16.27 | |
| AVDL | Avadel Pharmaceuticals PLC | 0.02 | 10 per month | 0.88 | 0.07 | 0.70 | (0.69) | 29.13 | |
| PRCT | Procept Biorobotics Corp | (0.90) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.06 | (5.21) | 17.63 | |
| MESO | Mesoblast | (0.70) | 7 per month | 3.27 | (0.01) | 5.49 | (4.87) | 19.08 | |
| CLOV | Clover Health Investments | 0.09 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 5.26 | (6.76) | 19.87 | |
| QDEL | Quidel | 0.39 | 9 per month | 5.24 | 0.03 | 8.12 | (6.16) | 24.99 | |
| EWTX | Edgewise Therapeutics | (0.46) | 11 per month | 4.32 | 0.12 | 12.91 | (5.57) | 38.85 | |
| GPCR | Structure Therapeutics American | 1.07 | 10 per month | 3.38 | 0.13 | 8.23 | (7.09) | 110.34 |
Other Forecasting Options for Qilian International
For every potential investor in Qilian, whether a beginner or expert, Qilian International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Qilian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Qilian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Qilian International's price trends.Qilian International Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Qilian International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Qilian International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Qilian International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Qilian International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Qilian International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Qilian International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Qilian International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Qilian International Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 208958.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.37) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.82 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.31 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.28 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.22) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.26) |
Qilian International Risk Indicators
The analysis of Qilian International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Qilian International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting qilian stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.08 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.77 | |||
| Variance | 45.88 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Qilian International
The number of cover stories for Qilian International depends on current market conditions and Qilian International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Qilian International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Qilian International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
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Qilian International Short Properties
Qilian International's future price predictability will typically decrease when Qilian International's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Qilian International Holding often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Qilian International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Qilian International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 18.1 M | |
| Shares Float | 2.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Qilian International to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Will Pharmaceuticals sector continue expanding? Could Qilian diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Qilian International. Projected growth potential of Qilian fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Qilian International data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (0.17) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.57) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Investors evaluate Qilian International using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Qilian International's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Qilian International's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Qilian International's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Qilian International should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Qilian International's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.