BHP Group Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BHP1 Stock | EUR 25.10 0.12 0.48% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of BHP Group Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 24.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.75. BHP Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of BHP Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
BHP |
BHP Group Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of BHP Group Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 24.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47, mean absolute percentage error of 0.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BHP Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BHP Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
BHP Group Stock Forecast Pattern
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BHP Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting BHP Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BHP Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.31 and 26.00, respectively. We have considered BHP Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BHP Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BHP Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.9972 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4712 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0183 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.7459 |
Predictive Modules for BHP Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BHP Group Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for BHP Group
For every potential investor in BHP, whether a beginner or expert, BHP Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BHP Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BHP. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BHP Group's price trends.BHP Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BHP Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BHP Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BHP Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
BHP Group Limited Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of BHP Group's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of BHP Group's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
BHP Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BHP Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BHP Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BHP Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify BHP Group Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
BHP Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of BHP Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BHP Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bhp stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.86 | |||
| Variance | 3.44 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.82 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.52) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in BHP Stock
When determining whether BHP Group Limited is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if BHP Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Bhp Group Limited Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Bhp Group Limited Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BHP Group to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..