Ballard Power Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| BLDP Stock | CAD 3.50 0.02 0.57% |
Ballard Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Ballard Power's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ballard Power's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ballard Power fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of Ballard Power's share price is approaching 38 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ballard Power, making its price go up or down. Momentum 38
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.1) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.31) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.26) | Wall Street Target Price 1.694 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.10) |
Using Ballard Power hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ballard Power Systems from the perspective of Ballard Power response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ballard Power Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 3.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.12. Ballard Power after-hype prediction price | CAD 3.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Ballard |
Ballard Power Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ballard price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ballard using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ballard charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ballard Power Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ballard Power Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 3.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ballard Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ballard Power's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ballard Power Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ballard Power | Ballard Power Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ballard Power Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ballard Power's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ballard Power's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.50 and 6.40, respectively. We have considered Ballard Power's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ballard Power stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ballard Power stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0123 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.102 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0253 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.1203 |
Predictive Modules for Ballard Power
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ballard Power Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ballard Power After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ballard Power at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ballard Power or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ballard Power, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ballard Power Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ballard Power's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ballard Power's historical news coverage. Ballard Power's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.56 and 6.44, respectively. We have considered Ballard Power's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ballard Power is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ballard Power Systems is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ballard Power Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ballard Power is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ballard Power backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ballard Power, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.48 | 2.95 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
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Ballard Power Hype Timeline
Ballard Power Systems is currently traded for 3.50on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.05. Ballard is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.48%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ballard Power is about 3064.94%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.45. About 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.27. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ballard Power Systems recorded a loss per share of 0.55. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 3:1 split on the 3rd of June 1998. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ballard Power to cross-verify your projections.Ballard Power Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ballard Power's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ballard Power's future price movements. Getting to know how Ballard Power's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ballard Power may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SIS | Savaria | (0.07) | 10 per month | 0.95 | 0.08 | 2.42 | (1.95) | 7.79 | |
| BDT | Bird Construction | (0.15) | 6 per month | 2.68 | (0.01) | 3.10 | (3.75) | 11.62 | |
| HPS-A | Hammond Power Solutions | (0.59) | 2 per month | 3.08 | 0.07 | 4.73 | (5.23) | 36.77 | |
| TCL-A | Transcontinental | (1.32) | 6 per month | 0.90 | 0.09 | 1.91 | (1.97) | 21.82 | |
| WTE | Westshore Terminals Investment | (0.13) | 5 per month | 0.90 | 0.12 | 1.84 | (1.53) | 4.56 | |
| ARE | Aecon Group | 1.21 | 4 per month | 2.22 | 0.15 | 4.92 | (3.78) | 18.60 | |
| CJT | Cargojet | (0.07) | 3 per month | 2.67 | 0.07 | 4.44 | (2.15) | 15.37 | |
| VLN | Velan Inc | 0.35 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.64 | (2.29) | 24.47 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ballard Power
For every potential investor in Ballard, whether a beginner or expert, Ballard Power's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ballard Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ballard. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ballard Power's price trends.Ballard Power Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ballard Power stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ballard Power could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ballard Power by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ballard Power Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ballard Power stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ballard Power shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ballard Power stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ballard Power Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ballard Power Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ballard Power's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ballard Power's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ballard stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.98 | |||
| Variance | 8.9 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ballard Power
The number of cover stories for Ballard Power depends on current market conditions and Ballard Power's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ballard Power is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ballard Power's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ballard Power Short Properties
Ballard Power's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ballard Power's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ballard Power Systems often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ballard Power's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ballard Power's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 299.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 606.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ballard Power to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.