Bank of America Preferred Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BML-PJ Preferred Stock  USD 20.65  0.11  0.54%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bank of America on the next trading day is expected to be 20.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.64. Bank Preferred Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the value of rsi of Bank of America's share price is below 20 suggesting that the preferred stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Bank of America's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Bank of America, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Bank of America hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bank of America from the perspective of Bank of America response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bank of America on the next trading day is expected to be 20.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.64.

Bank of America after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 20.65  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as preferred stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bank of America to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Bank Preferred Stock please use our How to buy in Bank Preferred Stock guide.

Bank of America Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Bank price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bank using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bank charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Bank of America is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Bank of America value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Bank of America Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bank of America on the next trading day is expected to be 20.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.64.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bank Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bank of America's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bank of America Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Bank of AmericaBank of America Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Bank of America Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bank of America's Preferred Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bank of America's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.26 and 21.40, respectively. We have considered Bank of America's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
20.65
20.83
Expected Value
21.40
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank of America preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank of America preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.5033
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1394
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.007
SAESum of the absolute errors8.6438
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Bank of America. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Bank of America. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Bank of America

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank of America. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
20.0820.6521.22
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.8820.4521.02
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
19.3920.0720.76
Details

Bank of America After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Bank of America at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bank of America or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Preferred Stock prices, such as prices of Bank of America, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Bank of America Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Bank of America's preferred stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bank of America's historical news coverage. Bank of America's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.08 and 21.22, respectively. We have considered Bank of America's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
20.65
20.65
After-hype Price
21.22
Upside
Bank of America is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bank of America is based on 3 months time horizon.

Bank of America Preferred Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bank of America is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bank of America backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Preferred Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bank of America, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
0.57
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
20.65
20.65
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Bank of America Hype Timeline

Bank of America is currently traded for 20.65. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Bank is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Bank of America is about 186.45%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.65. The company last dividend was issued on the 14th of February 2023. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bank of America to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Bank Preferred Stock please use our How to buy in Bank Preferred Stock guide.

Bank of America Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Bank of America's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bank of America's future price movements. Getting to know how Bank of America's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bank of America may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Bank of America

For every potential investor in Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Bank of America's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bank Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bank of America's price trends.

Bank of America Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bank of America preferred stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bank of America could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bank of America by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bank of America Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bank of America preferred stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bank of America shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bank of America preferred stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bank of America entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bank of America Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bank of America's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank of America's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bank preferred stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Bank of America

The number of cover stories for Bank of America depends on current market conditions and Bank of America's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bank of America is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bank of America's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Bank Preferred Stock

Bank of America financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bank Preferred Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bank with respect to the benefits of owning Bank of America security.