Popular Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BPOPO Stock | USD 24.26 0.06 0.25% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Popular on the next trading day is expected to be 24.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.52. Popular Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Popular |
Popular Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Popular on the next trading day is expected to be 24.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.52.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Popular Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Popular's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Popular Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Popular | Popular Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Popular Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Popular's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Popular's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.21 and 25.31, respectively. We have considered Popular's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Popular pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Popular pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.5465 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 7.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1587 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0065 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.52 |
Predictive Modules for Popular
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Popular. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Popular
For every potential investor in Popular, whether a beginner or expert, Popular's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Popular Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Popular. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Popular's price trends.View Popular Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Popular Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Popular's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Popular's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Popular Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Popular pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Popular shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Popular pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Popular entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 24.26 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 24.26 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.03 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.06 |
Popular Risk Indicators
The analysis of Popular's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Popular's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting popular pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.702 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Variance | 1.22 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Popular
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Popular position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Popular will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Popular Pink Sheet
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Popular could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Popular when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Popular - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Popular to buy it.
The correlation of Popular is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Popular moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Popular moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Popular can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Popular Pink Sheet
When determining whether Popular is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Popular Pink Sheet is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Popular Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Popular Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Popular to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Popular Pink Sheet, please use our How to Invest in Popular guide.You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.